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welcome to the skeptic zone the podcast

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from australia for science and reason

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[Applause]

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yes it's the skeptic's own podcast

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episode number 689

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for the 19th of december 2021

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richard saunders coming to you from

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sydney australia where the

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not the uh skeptical fairy godmother

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angel from the internet has visited it

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is the

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muggy here in sydney

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i was i happened to be downtown

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yesterday

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and during this

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ridiculously hot muggy

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weather

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and uh

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i happened across

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a

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but coming up on this week's show the

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whole show is devoted to the great

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australian psychic prediction project

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together with adrian hill i shall read

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out the official

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report it's nice that it's finished it's

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nice that it's come to a conclusion well

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it's come to a tentative conclusion

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because like science it should be a work

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in progress

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but i'm tempted i'm tempted to keep

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gathering predictions every year and

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adding them to the database we shall see

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we shall see i can hear my prediction

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crew

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around the world going oh

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really

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in that case

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it's already time for me to run

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downstairs and have a nice big glass of

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ice cold ginger beer with ice

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will i do that i hope you enjoy the

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[Music]

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the great australian psychic prediction

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project

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richard saunders concludes a 12-year

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investigation by australian and

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international researchers covering over

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3 800 predictions from more than 200

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self-professed psychics and the results

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are not encouraging

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for psychics

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[Music]

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the great australian psychic prediction

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project is an analysis of over

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800 psychic or otherwise paranormal

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predictions made by 207 people in

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australia claiming to have knowledge of

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future events all were published in the

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australian media

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magazines newspapers radio tv or via

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websites youtube and other sources

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covering a 21 year period

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2000 to 2020. for the purposes of this

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report those who made the predictions

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will be known as

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psychics although some lay claim to

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using other kinds of

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force or abilities such as reading the

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future in the stars

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and planets

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the purpose of the project was to gather

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and review enough data to be able to

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draw a valid conclusion

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to the question of whether certain

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individuals in our society

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really do possess the ability or power

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by psychic or otherwise paranormal means

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to be able to reliably predict or

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foresee events in the future

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it is not nor has it ever been an

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exercise in so-called debunking of

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paranormal claims the project was

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undertaken with an open mind with the

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goal of seeking to get at the truth of

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the issue the mechanism employed by any

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individual psychic is of passing

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interest the project is really only

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interested in the final results of any

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prediction it is a case of invoking

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ironman's maxim

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which states

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do not try to explain how something

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works until you find out that it works

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and the result of that scientific

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analysis indicates that psychics are

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appallingly bad

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at predicting future events in summary

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only 11 of predictions are

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correct

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the professions journal the

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international psychics directory has

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only 8.5 correct most predictions were

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too vague expected or simply wrong

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most of what happens is not predicted

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and most of what is predicted does not

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happen

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it is anticipated that this report will

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be used by other groups and the media as

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history of prophecies

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the claimed phenomenon of being able to

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foretell events by paranormal

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supernatural divine or spiritual means

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is probably as old as human society

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there are many examples from various

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religions such as can be found in the

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book of revelation from the new

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testament dealing with the so-called end

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times over millennia there are

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individuals sometimes associated with

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religion sometimes not who claim to

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possess the power of divination or who

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are looked upon by society as having

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such powers

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many superstitions and rituals develop

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around the uncertainty of existence for

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individuals and societies such as next

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season's crops or other activities

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what might happen in the future was

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vital knowledge and any possible

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insights were of great importance

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possibly the best known seer or

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predictor of future events in popular

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culture is

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michel de nostradam usually referred to

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as nostradamus who in 1555

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published the book lay prophecies

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a collection of 942 poetic quad trains

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most are intentionally vague and open to

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interpretation with some reused or

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recycled over the centuries to

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shoehorn you see later in this report

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about this practice in order to fit more

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recent events or people

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an example of this reuse comes from the

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works of john hogue

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who in his first edition of his book

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nostradamus and the millennium

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determined that ayatollah khomeini

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was the antichrist referred to by

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nostradamus when harmony died the next

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edition of the book replaced the

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ayatollah with saddam hussein it may

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well be the case that every generation

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will find some sort of antichrist they

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can credit to nostradamus

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which renders the original prediction as

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worthless

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the extent of this fascination with

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nostradamus especially in the later part

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of the 20th century can be seen in an

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issue of new idea magazine from

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australia published shortly after the 9

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11 attacks of 2001

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it carried these words on the back cover

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in the city of god there will be a great

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thunder two brothers torn apart by chaos

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while the fortress endures the great

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leader will succumb

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the third big war will begin when the

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big city is burning nostradamus 1654

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the quatrain was actually written by

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neil marshall a student from canada in a

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paper entitled a critical analysis of

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nostronomus

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marshall invented the quatrain to

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illustrate how a vague prediction can be

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cited to fit events

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but it was far more important for new

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idea to include something mystical to

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appeal to its readers than it was for

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the editors to verify the authenticity

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of the quote this practice is widespread

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and will be covered later in this report

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a short search of the internet would

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have revealed that nostradamus died in

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1566

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88 years before the date of the quatrain

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the fad for referring to nostradamus has

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noticeably declined over the past 20

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years possibly due to the increasing

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number of failed predictions such as

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this one concerning the year

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1999.

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the year one thousand nine ninety nine

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seven a month from the sky shall come a

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great king of terror shall be revived

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the great king of angel moa before and

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after mars shall reign as chance will

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have it

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as history records

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nothing resembling the prediction

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happened in july 1999

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it should be noted that this quatrain is

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rare for nostradamus as it gives an

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actual date

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james randy remarked that every time

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nostradamus mentioned a date

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the prediction has failed to come true

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a more recent example of religious

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prophecy comes from 2011

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when billboard sponsored by harold

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camping of family radio based in the

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united states appeared in many cities

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around the world including sydney

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australia proclaiming that the rapture

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would take place on may 21

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2011.

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needless to say this prediction failed

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to materialize

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james randy writing in his 1995 book an

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encyclopedia of claims frauds and hoaxes

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of the occult and supernatural lists 44

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failed end of the world predictions

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dating from biblical to modern times

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although the full number of such

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predictions is much higher

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skeptical groups note that

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such predictions occur every year with

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2021 being no exception

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the project

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[Music]

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the genesis of the great australian

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psychic prediction project came from a

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talk given by the author in the year

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2010 at the amazing meeting australia in

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sydney a joint james randi educational

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foundation and australian skeptics event

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where he reviewed the predictions for

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that year made in the pages of the

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australian psychics directory magazine

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many tv and radio shows will feature

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people who claim to have paranormal

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powers giving their predictions in

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december and january for the year ahead

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but rarely if ever will the same shows

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make an analysis of the predictions at

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the end of the year

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if they do it will be to mention the

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predictions that came true picking those

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that were uncontentious or those that in

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the opinion of the psychic came true

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incorrect predictions are generally

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ignored

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this situation is expected as the tv and

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radio shows are not in the business of

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downplaying or denigrating claimed

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psychic abilities

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the segments are usually short enjoyed

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by the viewers on the day

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and soon forgotten

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the same can be said for magazines that

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print predictions their readers will

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enjoy the column based largely on

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celebrity gossip and soon forget it it

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would be counterproductive for the

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producers or editors to cast doubt on

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these people who are paid or receive

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exposure and are helping to generate

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income for the media outlet involved

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it is

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after all a business

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the word of the psychic that they are

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amazingly accurate complete with a few

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examples is often enough to meet the

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editors or producers requirements it is

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more important for the psychic to

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produce column inches or present well on

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tv

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whether the predictions made on the day

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later turn out to be wrong

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is of no particular importance

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predictions concerning celebrities the

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lives loves and careers of famous people

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make up about 35

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of entries in our database of those

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00:12:52,870 --> 00:12:50,959
around

288
00:12:53,829 --> 00:12:52,880
seven percent concerned actress nicole

289
00:12:55,590 --> 00:12:53,839
kidman

290
00:12:58,389 --> 00:12:55,600
as the subject of predictions she

291
00:12:59,990 --> 00:12:58,399
appears more than any other individual

292
00:13:01,990 --> 00:13:00,000
in the database

293
00:13:04,150 --> 00:13:02,000
the prevalence of predictions concerning

294
00:13:07,190 --> 00:13:04,160
celebrities may well reflect the human

295
00:13:08,949 --> 00:13:07,200
fascination with gossip and rumors

296
00:13:11,990 --> 00:13:08,959
predictions concerning celebrities can

297
00:13:14,230 --> 00:13:12,000
be seen as satisfying a need of

298
00:13:16,710 --> 00:13:14,240
gaining some sort of inside information

299
00:13:19,110 --> 00:13:16,720
about prominent people it is also a

300
00:13:21,590 --> 00:13:19,120
relatively easy task for the one making

301
00:13:23,750 --> 00:13:21,600
the prediction as ultimately the

302
00:13:26,710 --> 00:13:23,760
predictions don't need to be based on

303
00:13:28,550 --> 00:13:26,720
truth as they are usually soon forgotten

304
00:13:31,620 --> 00:13:28,560
and can be categorized as just an

305
00:13:34,870 --> 00:13:31,630
opinion of what might happen

306
00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:34,880
[Music]

307
00:13:39,990 --> 00:13:35,690
methodology

308
00:13:45,509 --> 00:13:42,069
collecting and archiving predictions

309
00:13:48,150 --> 00:13:45,519
from original sources was no small

310
00:13:50,389 --> 00:13:48,160
undertaking and meant many hundreds of

311
00:13:53,110 --> 00:13:50,399
hours of research and investigation over

312
00:13:56,310 --> 00:13:53,120
a 12-year period this included looking

313
00:13:58,230 --> 00:13:56,320
at every page of magazines such as new

314
00:14:00,790 --> 00:13:58,240
idea and woman's day

315
00:14:02,629 --> 00:14:00,800
while not all issues were available most

316
00:14:05,350 --> 00:14:02,639
were accessible at the state libraries

317
00:14:07,030 --> 00:14:05,360
of new south wales and victoria

318
00:14:09,509 --> 00:14:07,040
other predictions were collected by

319
00:14:12,069 --> 00:14:09,519
searches of online newspaper archives

320
00:14:14,710 --> 00:14:12,079
and from archived video segments from

321
00:14:17,189 --> 00:14:14,720
popular tv chat and morning shows

322
00:14:19,829 --> 00:14:17,199
radio interviews etc

323
00:14:22,150 --> 00:14:19,839
yet more predictions were collected from

324
00:14:24,470 --> 00:14:22,160
the web pages and youtube videos of

325
00:14:26,790 --> 00:14:24,480
psychics some of these predictions

326
00:14:29,670 --> 00:14:26,800
especially from somewhat long and

327
00:14:32,470 --> 00:14:29,680
rambling videos have been distilled and

328
00:14:34,150 --> 00:14:32,480
paraphrased for the sake of brevity

329
00:14:38,389 --> 00:14:34,160
the structure of the database in the

330
00:14:40,790 --> 00:14:38,399
form of a spreadsheet as follows

331
00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:40,800
column one the year for which the

332
00:14:45,509 --> 00:14:43,279
prediction was made

333
00:14:47,189 --> 00:14:45,519
2 the name of the person who made the

334
00:14:48,550 --> 00:14:47,199
prediction

335
00:14:50,949 --> 00:14:48,560
column 3

336
00:14:52,150 --> 00:14:50,959
where and when the prediction was

337
00:14:54,870 --> 00:14:52,160
published

338
00:14:56,150 --> 00:14:54,880
column 4 the general topic of the

339
00:14:58,629 --> 00:14:56,160
prediction

340
00:14:59,829 --> 00:14:58,639
column 5 the main subject of the

341
00:15:04,389 --> 00:14:59,839
prediction

342
00:15:08,629 --> 00:15:04,399
column 7

343
00:15:09,990 --> 00:15:08,639
verdict correct wrong too vague expected

344
00:15:13,189 --> 00:15:10,000
or unknown

345
00:15:16,629 --> 00:15:13,199
column 8 explanatory notes if needed

346
00:15:19,189 --> 00:15:16,639
the list of the 207 psychics recorded in

347
00:15:21,269 --> 00:15:19,199
the database is extensive with many

348
00:15:22,470 --> 00:15:21,279
well-known names and many that are

349
00:15:24,790 --> 00:15:22,480
obscure

350
00:15:26,110 --> 00:15:24,800
georgina walker heads the list with the

351
00:15:29,269 --> 00:15:26,120
most entries

352
00:15:32,230 --> 00:15:29,279
277 or about seven percent of the entire

353
00:15:34,949 --> 00:15:32,240
database of her predictions about 88

354
00:15:38,069 --> 00:15:34,959
percent concerned celebrities

355
00:15:40,150 --> 00:15:38,079
while it may never be known whether

356
00:15:42,310 --> 00:15:40,160
individual psychics in the database

357
00:15:44,710 --> 00:15:42,320
truly believe they have a paranormal

358
00:15:49,509 --> 00:15:44,720
ability to see future events

359
00:15:51,749 --> 00:15:49,519
they at least claim to do so as such any

360
00:15:53,990 --> 00:15:51,759
prediction published over the 21-year

361
00:15:56,470 --> 00:15:54,000
period covered by the project from a

362
00:15:59,509 --> 00:15:56,480
psychic via whatever means including

363
00:16:02,870 --> 00:15:59,519
messages from spirits dreams feelings

364
00:16:05,990 --> 00:16:02,880
tarot cards astrology and so on is

365
00:16:08,949 --> 00:16:06,000
deemed to be a psychic or otherwise

366
00:16:10,790 --> 00:16:08,959
paranormal prediction and thus qualified

367
00:16:13,110 --> 00:16:10,800
for inclusion

368
00:16:15,030 --> 00:16:13,120
it has to be acknowledged that gathering

369
00:16:17,189 --> 00:16:15,040
all psychic or otherwise paranormal

370
00:16:18,870 --> 00:16:17,199
predictions published in australia over

371
00:16:21,670 --> 00:16:18,880
the period of the project

372
00:16:23,670 --> 00:16:21,680
was not possible not every prediction is

373
00:16:25,829 --> 00:16:23,680
kept in an archive some that are

374
00:16:28,550 --> 00:16:25,839
archived and not accessible

375
00:16:30,790 --> 00:16:28,560
and some are simply lost we expect that

376
00:16:33,030 --> 00:16:30,800
some criticism will arise that the

377
00:16:35,590 --> 00:16:33,040
database is incomplete this and other

378
00:16:37,590 --> 00:16:35,600
expected criticisms are addressed

379
00:16:40,310 --> 00:16:37,600
elsewhere in this report

380
00:16:44,230 --> 00:16:40,320
however it is felt by the author that

381
00:16:47,590 --> 00:16:44,240
with over 3 800 catalog predictions the

382
00:16:50,389 --> 00:16:47,600
conclusions drawn a reasonable and valid

383
00:16:53,189 --> 00:16:50,399
and a fair representation of predictions

384
00:16:56,470 --> 00:16:53,199
in general it is reasonably expected

385
00:16:58,790 --> 00:16:56,480
that even if every prediction could be

386
00:17:02,870 --> 00:16:58,800
collected the results in general would

387
00:17:04,390 --> 00:17:02,880
not vary to any significant degree

388
00:17:06,390 --> 00:17:04,400
the wording of each prediction in the

389
00:17:09,189 --> 00:17:06,400
database is copied from the original

390
00:17:10,870 --> 00:17:09,199
source with a digital copy of the source

391
00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:10,880
kept for reference

392
00:17:16,949 --> 00:17:14,079
these files consist mainly of scans or

393
00:17:19,350 --> 00:17:16,959
photographs from magazine pages pdf

394
00:17:22,870 --> 00:17:19,360
copies from online newspaper archives

395
00:17:25,029 --> 00:17:22,880
video files of tv shows and audio files

396
00:17:27,029 --> 00:17:25,039
from radio also included in the

397
00:17:29,750 --> 00:17:27,039
reference files are copies of various

398
00:17:31,510 --> 00:17:29,760
web pages with timestamps to show that

399
00:17:32,470 --> 00:17:31,520
predictions were made

400
00:17:34,390 --> 00:17:32,480
before

401
00:17:36,789 --> 00:17:34,400
the events being predicted

402
00:17:38,549 --> 00:17:36,799
the purpose of retaining these files is

403
00:17:42,310 --> 00:17:38,559
to validate the information in the

404
00:17:44,870 --> 00:17:42,320
database as true and accurate websites

405
00:17:47,110 --> 00:17:44,880
that boasted the success of predictions

406
00:17:49,990 --> 00:17:47,120
but were published after the events

407
00:17:53,010 --> 00:17:50,000
mentioned were not included unless the

408
00:17:55,110 --> 00:17:53,020
original predictions could be verified

409
00:17:59,160 --> 00:17:55,120
[Music]

410
00:18:01,830 --> 00:17:59,170
the flow of time and information

411
00:18:04,150 --> 00:18:01,840
[Music]

412
00:18:07,430 --> 00:18:04,160
modern physics knows of no way for

413
00:18:09,750 --> 00:18:07,440
information to go backwards in time

414
00:18:12,310 --> 00:18:09,760
there might be some bizarre loophole

415
00:18:13,590 --> 00:18:12,320
that allows it but there is no evidence

416
00:18:15,430 --> 00:18:13,600
for it

417
00:18:17,190 --> 00:18:15,440
in order for an individual to have

418
00:18:20,070 --> 00:18:17,200
knowledge of events that are yet to

419
00:18:21,990 --> 00:18:20,080
happen the information about that event

420
00:18:24,230 --> 00:18:22,000
would by necessity have to travel

421
00:18:26,470 --> 00:18:24,240
backwards in time to reach them and

422
00:18:29,029 --> 00:18:26,480
could only start its journey after the

423
00:18:31,430 --> 00:18:29,039
future event had taken place

424
00:18:33,270 --> 00:18:31,440
if this were the case the effect the

425
00:18:36,470 --> 00:18:33,280
knowledge of the event yet to happen

426
00:18:40,470 --> 00:18:36,480
would precede the cause the event itself

427
00:18:42,310 --> 00:18:40,480
contrary to the known laws of physics

428
00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:42,320
if information from the future is

429
00:18:46,950 --> 00:18:44,720
traveling backwards in time then why

430
00:18:49,350 --> 00:18:46,960
does it stop at any given point in time

431
00:18:51,590 --> 00:18:49,360
that is the time when the psychic is

432
00:18:53,830 --> 00:18:51,600
able to access it

433
00:18:56,710 --> 00:18:53,840
does it keep going on forever

434
00:18:59,270 --> 00:18:56,720
if so then are all events in the future

435
00:19:00,549 --> 00:18:59,280
broadcasting backwards in time until the

436
00:19:02,710 --> 00:19:00,559
big bang

437
00:19:05,110 --> 00:19:02,720
if information of a future negative

438
00:19:07,190 --> 00:19:05,120
event say a house fire did travel

439
00:19:09,350 --> 00:19:07,200
backwards in time causing a prediction

440
00:19:11,510 --> 00:19:09,360
in the form of a warning and that

441
00:19:14,230 --> 00:19:11,520
warning is acted upon with the result

442
00:19:16,070 --> 00:19:14,240
being the fire is averted then there was

443
00:19:17,590 --> 00:19:16,080
no event from which the information

444
00:19:19,909 --> 00:19:17,600
could be generated

445
00:19:21,590 --> 00:19:19,919
what exactly would the psychic be

446
00:19:23,510 --> 00:19:21,600
sensing

447
00:19:25,669 --> 00:19:23,520
although such arguments can be

448
00:19:27,590 --> 00:19:25,679
considered as to why future events

449
00:19:29,750 --> 00:19:27,600
cannot be seen

450
00:19:31,909 --> 00:19:29,760
it must be remembered that for many if

451
00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:31,919
not all psychics these points are

452
00:19:37,909 --> 00:19:34,720
irrelevant as they at least in their own

453
00:19:40,230 --> 00:19:37,919
mind or worldview rely on paranormal or

454
00:19:43,110 --> 00:19:40,240
supernatural methods which define normal

455
00:19:44,310 --> 00:19:43,120
common sense and logic and remain

456
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:44,320
unproven

457
00:19:50,230 --> 00:19:47,250
c hyman's maxim

458
00:19:53,390 --> 00:19:50,240
[Music]

459
00:19:55,590 --> 00:19:53,400
assessing the predictions

460
00:19:57,909 --> 00:19:55,600
[Music]

461
00:20:00,390 --> 00:19:57,919
much of the early work on the project

462
00:20:03,750 --> 00:20:00,400
was conducted by the author but it soon

463
00:20:06,630 --> 00:20:03,760
became apparent as the project continued

464
00:20:09,270 --> 00:20:06,640
for year after year that more help was

465
00:20:11,750 --> 00:20:09,280
needed in not only collecting but also

466
00:20:14,149 --> 00:20:11,760
in assessing predictions for several

467
00:20:17,029 --> 00:20:14,159
weeks in 2016 a small team from

468
00:20:18,950 --> 00:20:17,039
australian skeptics inc met to pour over

469
00:20:22,390 --> 00:20:18,960
the predictions and research them to

470
00:20:24,230 --> 00:20:22,400
draw conclusions this was invaluable to

471
00:20:26,789 --> 00:20:24,240
the project and those involved are

472
00:20:29,669 --> 00:20:26,799
thanked in the credits at other periods

473
00:20:32,470 --> 00:20:29,679
over the years predictions were sent via

474
00:20:33,830 --> 00:20:32,480
email or text messages to people who

475
00:20:36,149 --> 00:20:33,840
would spend time researching the

476
00:20:37,990 --> 00:20:36,159
outcomes these results would be reviewed

477
00:20:39,029 --> 00:20:38,000
by the author for inclusion into the

478
00:20:45,669 --> 00:20:39,039
database

479
00:20:48,630 --> 00:20:45,679
to thousands of entries a new group was

480
00:20:51,750 --> 00:20:48,640
formed via zoom video meetings

481
00:20:53,909 --> 00:20:51,760
the group met each week for over a year

482
00:20:56,789 --> 00:20:53,919
and varied in size from five to ten

483
00:20:57,990 --> 00:20:56,799
people mostly from australia canada and

484
00:20:59,830 --> 00:20:58,000
the usa

485
00:21:02,149 --> 00:20:59,840
each meeting lasted two hours but

486
00:21:04,149 --> 00:21:02,159
sometimes longer these meetings

487
00:21:06,549 --> 00:21:04,159
consisted of the author supplying a

488
00:21:08,870 --> 00:21:06,559
prediction from the database and then

489
00:21:10,070 --> 00:21:08,880
the group researching the outcome of the

490
00:21:16,230 --> 00:21:10,080
prediction

491
00:21:18,149 --> 00:21:16,240
discussed and online searches used to

492
00:21:20,230 --> 00:21:18,159
discover the result

493
00:21:22,710 --> 00:21:20,240
at times this was a quick task with the

494
00:21:24,549 --> 00:21:22,720
answer found easily as either my

495
00:21:25,909 --> 00:21:24,559
predicted event happened

496
00:21:28,549 --> 00:21:25,919
or it did not

497
00:21:30,630 --> 00:21:28,559
and other times it took a great effort

498
00:21:31,590 --> 00:21:30,640
and much searching to discover the

499
00:21:34,230 --> 00:21:31,600
answer

500
00:21:36,710 --> 00:21:34,240
stock market charts interest rates over

501
00:21:38,630 --> 00:21:36,720
the years housing markets exchange rates

502
00:21:41,430 --> 00:21:38,640
and so on all took

503
00:21:42,950 --> 00:21:41,440
a great deal of time to research

504
00:21:45,750 --> 00:21:42,960
even the plight of any particular

505
00:21:48,630 --> 00:21:45,760
sporting team took time and effort to

506
00:21:50,870 --> 00:21:48,640
research if the conclusion was debated

507
00:21:53,029 --> 00:21:50,880
the author made the final call

508
00:21:56,630 --> 00:21:53,039
many of these uncertain predictions

509
00:21:58,549 --> 00:21:56,640
ended up being catalogued as too vague

510
00:22:00,710 --> 00:21:58,559
having many eyes looking over the same

511
00:22:03,110 --> 00:22:00,720
prediction proved to be a great asset to

512
00:22:05,430 --> 00:22:03,120
the project cloaking a prediction in

513
00:22:08,070 --> 00:22:05,440
vague terms will be discussed later in

514
00:22:09,270 --> 00:22:08,080
this report however it is worth noting

515
00:22:10,630 --> 00:22:09,280
that around

516
00:22:12,470 --> 00:22:10,640
19

517
00:22:15,830 --> 00:22:12,480
of all the predictions cataloged in the

518
00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:15,840
database are of a vague nature and thus

519
00:22:19,750 --> 00:22:18,320
open to interpretation especially in

520
00:22:21,750 --> 00:22:19,760
hindsight

521
00:22:25,510 --> 00:22:21,760
not all predictions are clear with a

522
00:22:27,270 --> 00:22:25,520
definitive correct or wrong result each

523
00:22:30,390 --> 00:22:27,280
prediction was listed under two

524
00:22:32,789 --> 00:22:30,400
categories those being topic and main

525
00:22:36,230 --> 00:22:32,799
subject for example this prediction from

526
00:22:38,870 --> 00:22:36,240
milton black in 2004 melbourne cup

527
00:22:40,390 --> 00:22:38,880
winning horse is dark brown

528
00:22:44,310 --> 00:22:40,400
is designated

529
00:22:47,110 --> 00:22:44,320
sport as the topic and melbourne cup as

530
00:22:49,830 --> 00:22:47,120
the main subject other topics include

531
00:22:51,909 --> 00:22:49,840
members of the uk royal family natural

532
00:22:54,310 --> 00:22:51,919
disasters science celebrities and

533
00:22:56,390 --> 00:22:54,320
terrorism it was not always possible to

534
00:22:59,110 --> 00:22:56,400
find obvious categories and some

535
00:23:00,950 --> 00:22:59,120
predictions are placed under what could

536
00:23:01,770 --> 00:23:00,960
more or less be called the topic and

537
00:23:04,710 --> 00:23:01,780
main subject

538
00:23:09,830 --> 00:23:04,720
[Music]

539
00:23:14,630 --> 00:23:11,909
assessing the predictions proved to be

540
00:23:16,630 --> 00:23:14,640
much more involved and time consuming

541
00:23:19,110 --> 00:23:16,640
than was anticipated many of the

542
00:23:22,070 --> 00:23:19,120
predictions could be assessed relatively

543
00:23:24,549 --> 00:23:22,080
easily as being correct in other words

544
00:23:26,789 --> 00:23:24,559
it was judged that any reasonable person

545
00:23:29,029 --> 00:23:26,799
would agree the events predicted did

546
00:23:31,669 --> 00:23:29,039
indeed come to pass

547
00:23:33,750 --> 00:23:31,679
or wrong with the same reasoning

548
00:23:36,230 --> 00:23:33,760
a great deal of these events are simply

549
00:23:38,789 --> 00:23:36,240
part of the historical record for

550
00:23:41,110 --> 00:23:38,799
example either someone had two children

551
00:23:43,350 --> 00:23:41,120
or they did not the political party won

552
00:23:45,669 --> 00:23:43,360
the election or it did not

553
00:23:47,029 --> 00:23:45,679
however other predictions were not so

554
00:23:50,149 --> 00:23:47,039
clear-cut

555
00:23:52,070 --> 00:23:50,159
marking a prediction as correct did at

556
00:23:54,710 --> 00:23:52,080
times present one of the many

557
00:23:57,350 --> 00:23:54,720
interesting aspects of this project does

558
00:24:00,070 --> 00:23:57,360
a mundane prediction coming true carry

559
00:24:02,390 --> 00:24:00,080
the same weight as a long shot or

560
00:24:06,310 --> 00:24:02,400
unlikely prediction coming true

561
00:24:08,950 --> 00:24:06,320
for example in 2013 kerry sees

562
00:24:10,870 --> 00:24:08,960
writing in the advertiser adelaide on

563
00:24:13,190 --> 00:24:10,880
the 5th of october predicted that

564
00:24:15,590 --> 00:24:13,200
australia would win the upcoming ash's

565
00:24:17,669 --> 00:24:15,600
test cricket series against england

566
00:24:19,510 --> 00:24:17,679
australia won and so the prediction is

567
00:24:22,630 --> 00:24:19,520
marked as correct

568
00:24:25,190 --> 00:24:22,640
however there was more or less a 50 50

569
00:24:26,710 --> 00:24:25,200
chance of this occurring as with many

570
00:24:29,029 --> 00:24:26,720
other predictions that look at the

571
00:24:30,070 --> 00:24:29,039
outcomes of sporting matches between two

572
00:24:33,110 --> 00:24:30,080
teams

573
00:24:36,549 --> 00:24:33,120
although this at times can vary if one

574
00:24:38,149 --> 00:24:36,559
team is favored owing to recent strong

575
00:24:41,590 --> 00:24:38,159
performances

576
00:24:45,029 --> 00:24:41,600
then we have this prediction from maria

577
00:24:49,029 --> 00:24:45,039
campbell who was quoted in the area news

578
00:24:51,430 --> 00:24:49,039
griffith on the 9th of january 2015.

579
00:24:53,909 --> 00:24:51,440
she said she was deeply concerned about

580
00:24:55,510 --> 00:24:53,919
future terrorist attacks quote the

581
00:24:57,830 --> 00:24:55,520
canberra shopping center will be a

582
00:25:00,310 --> 00:24:57,840
target i wouldn't be surprised if it's a

583
00:25:02,710 --> 00:25:00,320
suicide bomber and there will be one in

584
00:25:03,909 --> 00:25:02,720
parramatta too end quote

585
00:25:05,830 --> 00:25:03,919
although the first part of this

586
00:25:08,789 --> 00:25:05,840
prediction is wrong

587
00:25:12,470 --> 00:25:08,799
parramatta did suffer a terrorist

588
00:25:15,669 --> 00:25:12,480
related attack in october 2015 when a 15

589
00:25:19,029 --> 00:25:15,679
year old boy shot and killed curtis

590
00:25:19,990 --> 00:25:19,039
chang an unarmed police civilian finance

591
00:25:21,190 --> 00:25:20,000
worker

592
00:25:23,909 --> 00:25:21,200
it would be

593
00:25:25,190 --> 00:25:23,919
reasonable to consider this event as a

594
00:25:27,269 --> 00:25:25,200
long shot

595
00:25:28,870 --> 00:25:27,279
even though it was not a suicide bomber

596
00:25:29,990 --> 00:25:28,880
as predicted

597
00:25:32,149 --> 00:25:30,000
overall

598
00:25:34,070 --> 00:25:32,159
what might be called long shot or

599
00:25:35,590 --> 00:25:34,080
amazing predictions

600
00:25:37,909 --> 00:25:35,600
which predictions fall under this

601
00:25:39,430 --> 00:25:37,919
category is sometimes open to debate

602
00:25:41,669 --> 00:25:39,440
coming true are

603
00:25:43,909 --> 00:25:41,679
extremely rare in the database with the

604
00:25:47,350 --> 00:25:43,919
vast majority being of a more mundane

605
00:25:49,590 --> 00:25:47,360
nature thus these are not singled out in

606
00:25:52,549 --> 00:25:49,600
the database but cataloged as simply

607
00:25:55,669 --> 00:25:52,559
being correct a case worth examining in

608
00:25:57,990 --> 00:25:55,679
more detail is this prediction from 2001

609
00:26:00,230 --> 00:25:58,000
by kerry culkins

610
00:26:01,750 --> 00:26:00,240
major american cities targeted for

611
00:26:04,950 --> 00:26:01,760
terrorist attacks

612
00:26:07,750 --> 00:26:04,960
a lot of carnage is indicated

613
00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:07,760
while this undeniably happened new york

614
00:26:13,110 --> 00:26:10,640
and washington dc 911 and the prediction

615
00:26:15,510 --> 00:26:13,120
is marked correct we should also take

616
00:26:17,909 --> 00:26:15,520
into consideration the overall hit to

617
00:26:18,789 --> 00:26:17,919
miss ratio of miss culkins it turns out

618
00:26:19,870 --> 00:26:18,799
to be

619
00:26:23,190 --> 00:26:19,880
only

620
00:26:25,909 --> 00:26:23,200
4.69 correct with the remainder being

621
00:26:27,190 --> 00:26:25,919
listed as wrong too vague or expected

622
00:26:29,669 --> 00:26:27,200
collectively

623
00:26:32,549 --> 00:26:29,679
this led to the conclusion that

624
00:26:34,870 --> 00:26:32,559
this particular prediction was more of a

625
00:26:37,830 --> 00:26:34,880
random chance success rather than a

626
00:26:41,430 --> 00:26:37,840
mystical insight if someone makes many

627
00:26:43,990 --> 00:26:41,440
predictions in the case of culkins 213

628
00:26:47,110 --> 00:26:44,000
listed in total then we would expect

629
00:26:49,110 --> 00:26:47,120
some of them would come true regardless

630
00:26:51,110 --> 00:26:49,120
with this in mind the general trend in

631
00:26:53,269 --> 00:26:51,120
the database was that the more

632
00:26:55,350 --> 00:26:53,279
predictions recorded for an individual

633
00:26:57,669 --> 00:26:55,360
or for a certain topic from many

634
00:27:00,630 --> 00:26:57,679
individuals the more the percentage of

635
00:27:02,549 --> 00:27:00,640
correct predictions settled close to the

636
00:27:04,549 --> 00:27:02,559
11 mark

637
00:27:05,909 --> 00:27:04,559
it is much harder to draw conclusions

638
00:27:08,630 --> 00:27:05,919
from those in the database with

639
00:27:11,029 --> 00:27:08,640
relatively few entries such as the case

640
00:27:13,669 --> 00:27:11,039
of patsy bennett or charmaine wilson

641
00:27:16,310 --> 00:27:13,679
both of whom have only six predictions

642
00:27:18,950 --> 00:27:16,320
listed with none being correct it would

643
00:27:20,789 --> 00:27:18,960
be expected that if there were more

644
00:27:23,269 --> 00:27:20,799
entries from these people

645
00:27:26,149 --> 00:27:23,279
some at least would be correct

646
00:27:27,909 --> 00:27:26,159
alternatively we have a 50 success rate

647
00:27:29,669 --> 00:27:27,919
for connie gold

648
00:27:32,710 --> 00:27:29,679
however with only four catalog

649
00:27:34,549 --> 00:27:32,720
predictions meaning only two are correct

650
00:27:36,870 --> 00:27:34,559
while we cannot draw satisfactory

651
00:27:39,350 --> 00:27:36,880
conclusions for these individuals their

652
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:39,360
collective results do add to the overall

653
00:27:43,029 --> 00:27:40,530
results

654
00:27:43,990 --> 00:27:43,039
[Music]

655
00:27:48,950 --> 00:27:44,000
too

656
00:27:53,750 --> 00:27:51,029
vague predictions often dealt with

657
00:27:56,630 --> 00:27:53,760
matters of the heart or were rambling

658
00:27:59,350 --> 00:27:56,640
and confusing or contradictory these can

659
00:28:02,070 --> 00:27:59,360
be open to interpretation or even be

660
00:28:04,470 --> 00:28:02,080
impossible to falsify an example comes

661
00:28:06,470 --> 00:28:04,480
from this prediction made in 2009

662
00:28:10,950 --> 00:28:06,480
published in the sunday mail at late

663
00:28:12,789 --> 00:28:10,960
27th of december by sarina damon

664
00:28:14,950 --> 00:28:12,799
a major hollywood couple with

665
00:28:16,630 --> 00:28:14,960
connections to europe will go their

666
00:28:17,830 --> 00:28:16,640
separate ways

667
00:28:21,430 --> 00:28:17,840
what does

668
00:28:24,149 --> 00:28:21,440
connections to europe mean exactly who

669
00:28:25,029 --> 00:28:24,159
determines who is a major hollywood

670
00:28:29,190 --> 00:28:25,039
couple

671
00:28:32,070 --> 00:28:29,200
that matter this prediction could well

672
00:28:33,669 --> 00:28:32,080
be placed in the expected category

673
00:28:36,230 --> 00:28:33,679
more vagueness is found in the

674
00:28:38,070 --> 00:28:36,240
predictions like this one from simon

675
00:28:40,710 --> 00:28:38,080
turnbull writing in the sun herald

676
00:28:42,830 --> 00:28:40,720
sydney in 2009

677
00:28:45,750 --> 00:28:42,840
l macpherson

678
00:28:47,909 --> 00:28:45,760
love a recent agreement with a man close

679
00:28:49,190 --> 00:28:47,919
to her will attract a breakthrough

680
00:28:50,870 --> 00:28:49,200
love-wise

681
00:28:54,070 --> 00:28:50,880
but she is unsure whether the

682
00:28:56,870 --> 00:28:54,080
compatibility issue will wash

683
00:28:58,470 --> 00:28:56,880
vagueness can also take the form in what

684
00:29:01,430 --> 00:28:58,480
we may call

685
00:29:04,230 --> 00:29:01,440
new age or spiritual predictions such as

686
00:29:06,389 --> 00:29:04,240
this one from rose armitage published in

687
00:29:08,070 --> 00:29:06,399
the international psychics directory for

688
00:29:11,350 --> 00:29:08,080
2005.

689
00:29:13,510 --> 00:29:11,360
2005 is a seven year so there will be a

690
00:29:15,190 --> 00:29:13,520
need for people to get more in touch

691
00:29:17,029 --> 00:29:15,200
with their inner being

692
00:29:19,430 --> 00:29:17,039
the term used by those working on the

693
00:29:22,870 --> 00:29:19,440
project or such predictions was

694
00:29:25,110 --> 00:29:22,880
waffle some criticism is expected at the

695
00:29:27,110 --> 00:29:25,120
way such predictions are interpreted and

696
00:29:28,149 --> 00:29:27,120
this point is addressed later in this

697
00:29:30,549 --> 00:29:28,159
report

698
00:29:33,430 --> 00:29:30,559
psychics and others claiming paranormal

699
00:29:35,350 --> 00:29:33,440
abilities have in the past justified the

700
00:29:38,549 --> 00:29:35,360
vagueness of their predictions or

701
00:29:40,630 --> 00:29:38,559
readings by shifting the blame onto the

702
00:29:43,430 --> 00:29:40,640
indistinct messages

703
00:29:46,070 --> 00:29:43,440
via visions signs voices dreams or

704
00:29:47,350 --> 00:29:46,080
feelings they receive from disembodied

705
00:29:49,909 --> 00:29:47,360
spirits

706
00:29:52,230 --> 00:29:49,919
much as a faith healer may try to

707
00:29:55,190 --> 00:29:52,240
abdicate the claims of healing the sick

708
00:29:57,510 --> 00:29:55,200
that are implied by stating it is not

709
00:30:00,549 --> 00:29:57,520
they who heal it is the power of god

710
00:30:03,190 --> 00:30:00,559
working through them thus in both cases

711
00:30:05,029 --> 00:30:03,200
if a prediction is vague or wrong or a

712
00:30:07,350 --> 00:30:05,039
healing does not take place the

713
00:30:09,269 --> 00:30:07,360
responsibility can be shifted off the

714
00:30:11,590 --> 00:30:09,279
one making the claim

715
00:30:13,510 --> 00:30:11,600
for the purposes of this project

716
00:30:16,149 --> 00:30:13,520
those arguments are irrelevant and the

717
00:30:18,149 --> 00:30:16,159
person making the prediction is credited

718
00:30:19,269 --> 00:30:18,159
with and is responsible for that

719
00:30:24,070 --> 00:30:19,279
prediction

720
00:30:26,789 --> 00:30:24,080
open to interpretation may result in

721
00:30:28,550 --> 00:30:26,799
what is known as shoehorning

722
00:30:31,830 --> 00:30:28,560
discussed later in this report

723
00:30:36,470 --> 00:30:32,840
expected

724
00:30:38,630 --> 00:30:36,480
[Music]

725
00:30:41,750 --> 00:30:38,640
there are predictions which could

726
00:30:44,310 --> 00:30:41,760
technically be categorized as correct

727
00:30:47,110 --> 00:30:44,320
as they did come to pass

728
00:30:48,149 --> 00:30:47,120
but which are so obvious that they need

729
00:30:52,149 --> 00:30:48,159
to be

730
00:30:53,510 --> 00:30:52,159
differentiated and have thus been listed

731
00:30:56,470 --> 00:30:53,520
as expected

732
00:30:59,029 --> 00:30:56,480
such predictions show no indication of

733
00:31:01,830 --> 00:30:59,039
any psychic ability and may include such

734
00:31:04,870 --> 00:31:01,840
topics as health concerns for elderly

735
00:31:06,950 --> 00:31:04,880
people such as prince philip the usa

736
00:31:09,350 --> 00:31:06,960
being involved in a foreign conflict

737
00:31:11,590 --> 00:31:09,360
advancements in medical science and even

738
00:31:13,909 --> 00:31:11,600
more vague examples such as

739
00:31:15,029 --> 00:31:13,919
a well-known american comedian will pass

740
00:31:16,870 --> 00:31:15,039
away

741
00:31:19,430 --> 00:31:16,880
an actual prediction

742
00:31:22,549 --> 00:31:19,440
it is also common for predictions about

743
00:31:25,750 --> 00:31:22,559
natural disasters where we have examples

744
00:31:27,669 --> 00:31:25,760
such as this one from harry t

745
00:31:30,230 --> 00:31:27,679
writing in the international psychics

746
00:31:32,389 --> 00:31:30,240
directory in 2015

747
00:31:34,789 --> 00:31:32,399
i see large earthquakes happening in

748
00:31:39,750 --> 00:31:34,799
several parts of the world in particular

749
00:31:42,149 --> 00:31:39,760
california usa mexico china and japan

750
00:31:45,029 --> 00:31:42,159
other examples of expected include

751
00:31:48,389 --> 00:31:45,039
predicting that a long shot event

752
00:31:51,110 --> 00:31:48,399
won't happen for example a sporting team

753
00:31:53,990 --> 00:31:51,120
one among many in a league

754
00:31:57,750 --> 00:31:54,000
will not win a competition in january of

755
00:31:59,509 --> 00:31:57,760
2011 donna abraham is quoted in the

756
00:32:01,990 --> 00:31:59,519
leader windham

757
00:32:04,230 --> 00:32:02,000
and in bad news for western bulldogs

758
00:32:06,389 --> 00:32:04,240
fans she was negative about their

759
00:32:07,509 --> 00:32:06,399
chances of winning a premiership this

760
00:32:10,070 --> 00:32:07,519
year

761
00:32:12,950 --> 00:32:10,080
with 17 teams in the competition that

762
00:32:15,110 --> 00:32:12,960
year this prediction is far more likely

763
00:32:16,870 --> 00:32:15,120
to come true when considering these

764
00:32:19,430 --> 00:32:16,880
predictions researchers looked at the

765
00:32:21,269 --> 00:32:19,440
historical trends for example weather

766
00:32:23,110 --> 00:32:21,279
patterns economic trends history of

767
00:32:25,269 --> 00:32:23,120
certain natural disasters occurring in

768
00:32:28,230 --> 00:32:25,279
certain regions such as earthquakes and

769
00:32:30,149 --> 00:32:28,240
so on if a prediction matched the normal

770
00:32:32,620 --> 00:32:30,159
or expected trend

771
00:32:35,430 --> 00:32:32,630
it was catalogued under expected

772
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:35,440
[Music]

773
00:32:40,630 --> 00:32:37,010
unknown

774
00:32:42,870 --> 00:32:40,640
[Music]

775
00:32:45,590 --> 00:32:42,880
it was discovered that some of the

776
00:32:48,149 --> 00:32:45,600
predictions were very difficult to

777
00:32:50,470 --> 00:32:48,159
analyze as they related to specific

778
00:32:53,110 --> 00:32:50,480
events that may not be in the public

779
00:32:56,230 --> 00:32:53,120
record an example of this comes once

780
00:32:58,549 --> 00:32:56,240
more from ann anne who wrote in the

781
00:33:01,830 --> 00:32:58,559
woman's day magazine on the 6th of

782
00:33:04,549 --> 00:33:01,840
january 2003 about nicole kidman

783
00:33:07,430 --> 00:33:04,559
she'll also have some minor surgery

784
00:33:09,830 --> 00:33:07,440
while no reports were found it is

785
00:33:11,110 --> 00:33:09,840
entirely possible that the prediction

786
00:33:15,029 --> 00:33:11,120
came true

787
00:33:17,590 --> 00:33:15,039
however unless we were to ask ms kidman

788
00:33:20,710 --> 00:33:17,600
we may never know predictions of a very

789
00:33:23,350 --> 00:33:20,720
personal nature are easy to make but

790
00:33:25,590 --> 00:33:23,360
very hard to verify these predictions

791
00:33:28,710 --> 00:33:25,600
were listed as unknown in the database

792
00:33:31,190 --> 00:33:28,720
and may be reassessed once better

793
00:33:33,509 --> 00:33:31,200
information comes to hand it is possible

794
00:33:35,909 --> 00:33:33,519
however that we may never know the true

795
00:33:38,070 --> 00:33:35,919
outcome of some of these predictions a

796
00:33:41,190 --> 00:33:38,080
very few predictions listed talk about

797
00:33:43,269 --> 00:33:41,200
events post 2020 and thus are out of the

798
00:33:46,149 --> 00:33:43,279
range of the project unless

799
00:33:48,990 --> 00:33:46,159
those could be examined in the light of

800
00:33:51,190 --> 00:33:49,000
events in 2021

801
00:33:55,990 --> 00:33:51,200
[Music]

802
00:34:01,830 --> 00:33:58,470
some predictions encountered were

803
00:34:04,789 --> 00:34:01,840
long and wordy with what turned out to

804
00:34:07,830 --> 00:34:04,799
be many facets or extra predictions

805
00:34:10,069 --> 00:34:07,840
woven into the overall outlook

806
00:34:12,069 --> 00:34:10,079
with these it was necessary to separate

807
00:34:14,550 --> 00:34:12,079
and analyze the predictions within the

808
00:34:17,430 --> 00:34:14,560
prediction as much as possible an

809
00:34:20,389 --> 00:34:17,440
example of this was from 2001 with

810
00:34:23,270 --> 00:34:20,399
georgina walker writing in new idea

811
00:34:25,270 --> 00:34:23,280
about the actress kate blanchett

812
00:34:27,270 --> 00:34:25,280
the next five years for kate will be

813
00:34:29,270 --> 00:34:27,280
fantastic and will see her reach the

814
00:34:31,270 --> 00:34:29,280
pinnacle of her success

815
00:34:33,589 --> 00:34:31,280
i keep thinking of an old movie called

816
00:34:35,190 --> 00:34:33,599
the three faces of eve and feel that she

817
00:34:38,069 --> 00:34:35,200
will take on a role with multiple

818
00:34:40,470 --> 00:34:38,079
personalities this movie will be to her

819
00:34:42,550 --> 00:34:40,480
what gladiator was to russell crowe i

820
00:34:44,869 --> 00:34:42,560
sense tension on the home front and kate

821
00:34:48,389 --> 00:34:44,879
may take time off to concentrate on her

822
00:34:50,629 --> 00:34:48,399
marriage to scriptwriter andrew upton

823
00:34:52,629 --> 00:34:50,639
this was finally broken down into four

824
00:34:55,689 --> 00:34:52,639
separate predictions that varied from

825
00:34:57,510 --> 00:34:55,699
correct to wrong to unknown

826
00:34:59,030 --> 00:34:57,520
[Music]

827
00:35:03,109 --> 00:34:59,040
easy to predict

828
00:35:04,870 --> 00:35:03,119
but difficult to analyze

829
00:35:06,870 --> 00:35:04,880
surprisingly many of the short

830
00:35:09,750 --> 00:35:06,880
predictions in the database proved to be

831
00:35:11,670 --> 00:35:09,760
difficult and time consuming to analyze

832
00:35:14,470 --> 00:35:11,680
these are often related to events in

833
00:35:18,390 --> 00:35:14,480
local councils that may or may not have

834
00:35:21,829 --> 00:35:18,400
been archived or be of a vague nature

835
00:35:23,190 --> 00:35:21,839
this example comes from angelica denton

836
00:35:25,990 --> 00:35:23,200
and was published in the australian

837
00:35:28,390 --> 00:35:26,000
psychics directory for 2006.

838
00:35:31,349 --> 00:35:28,400
a famous aussie actor may decide to make

839
00:35:32,870 --> 00:35:31,359
a movie with a spiritual slant

840
00:35:35,750 --> 00:35:32,880
analyzing this prediction meant

841
00:35:37,510 --> 00:35:35,760
researching movies made at the time

842
00:35:38,950 --> 00:35:37,520
anywhere in the world

843
00:35:40,710 --> 00:35:38,960
whether it could be said they had a

844
00:35:42,870 --> 00:35:40,720
spiritual slant

845
00:35:45,750 --> 00:35:42,880
what that means and if an australian

846
00:35:48,870 --> 00:35:45,760
actor was involved in in what capacity

847
00:35:51,190 --> 00:35:48,880
this aspect of investigation even has

848
00:35:53,190 --> 00:35:51,200
its own term that is

849
00:35:56,390 --> 00:35:53,200
brando linney's law

850
00:35:58,790 --> 00:35:56,400
which is defined on wikipedia as

851
00:36:01,349 --> 00:35:58,800
brendolini's law also known as the

852
00:36:03,910 --> 00:36:01,359
asymmetry principle

853
00:36:06,550 --> 00:36:03,920
is an internet adage that emphasizes the

854
00:36:08,950 --> 00:36:06,560
difficulty of debunking false fatuous or

855
00:36:11,190 --> 00:36:08,960
otherwise misleading information

856
00:36:14,150 --> 00:36:11,200
the amount of energy needed to refute

857
00:36:16,550 --> 00:36:14,160
is an order of magnitude larger

858
00:36:17,990 --> 00:36:16,560
than is needed to produce it

859
00:36:20,710 --> 00:36:18,000
it should be noted that while

860
00:36:23,510 --> 00:36:20,720
brandolini's law assumes the claim is

861
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:23,520
bogus for the purposes of this project

862
00:36:30,710 --> 00:36:28,210
every claim was judged on its own merits

863
00:36:35,430 --> 00:36:30,720
[Music]

864
00:36:39,829 --> 00:36:37,829
skeptics bias

865
00:36:41,910 --> 00:36:39,839
the project was never an exercise in

866
00:36:44,230 --> 00:36:41,920
debunking it was undertaken by the

867
00:36:46,310 --> 00:36:44,240
australian skeptics a group interested

868
00:36:48,630 --> 00:36:46,320
in getting to the truth of the matter

869
00:36:50,790 --> 00:36:48,640
whatever that truth appears to be

870
00:36:53,430 --> 00:36:50,800
this can only be done by honest

871
00:36:55,829 --> 00:36:53,440
open-minded and diligent investigation

872
00:36:57,349 --> 00:36:55,839
and research

873
00:36:59,589 --> 00:36:57,359
those involved in assessing the

874
00:37:01,430 --> 00:36:59,599
predictions often did not need to use

875
00:37:03,430 --> 00:37:01,440
judgment where personal bias could

876
00:37:05,510 --> 00:37:03,440
influence the decision as many of the

877
00:37:08,310 --> 00:37:05,520
findings were self-evident predictions

878
00:37:10,230 --> 00:37:08,320
were clearly correct or clearly wrong

879
00:37:12,870 --> 00:37:10,240
judgment was called for with predictions

880
00:37:14,069 --> 00:37:12,880
considered to be of a vague or expected

881
00:37:16,150 --> 00:37:14,079
nature

882
00:37:17,750 --> 00:37:16,160
while the conclusions reached for any

883
00:37:19,990 --> 00:37:17,760
individual prediction are open to

884
00:37:22,470 --> 00:37:20,000
rebuttal and reassessment it is felt

885
00:37:24,790 --> 00:37:22,480
that this fine tuning would not alter

886
00:37:26,630 --> 00:37:24,800
the overall results to any significant

887
00:37:29,349 --> 00:37:26,640
extent

888
00:37:31,190 --> 00:37:29,359
not all predictions cataloged

889
00:37:33,910 --> 00:37:31,200
the true number of published predictions

890
00:37:36,630 --> 00:37:33,920
made in australia over the years 2000 to

891
00:37:39,589 --> 00:37:36,640
2020 may never be known

892
00:37:41,829 --> 00:37:39,599
nevertheless with over 3 800 predictions

893
00:37:44,550 --> 00:37:41,839
cataloged it is felt that a reasonable

894
00:37:47,270 --> 00:37:44,560
representation or cross-section has been

895
00:37:49,030 --> 00:37:47,280
achieved and valid conclusions may be

896
00:37:52,630 --> 00:37:49,040
drawn

897
00:37:54,710 --> 00:37:52,640
expected equals correct

898
00:37:57,589 --> 00:37:54,720
it might be said that predictions

899
00:38:00,630 --> 00:37:57,599
included in the expected category should

900
00:38:02,870 --> 00:38:00,640
be included in the results for correct

901
00:38:04,790 --> 00:38:02,880
while this is technically true there

902
00:38:07,109 --> 00:38:04,800
needs to be a differentiation between

903
00:38:09,510 --> 00:38:07,119
those claims where an unexpected event

904
00:38:12,550 --> 00:38:09,520
occurs and those where anyone could have

905
00:38:14,870 --> 00:38:12,560
predicted it psychic powers or none

906
00:38:16,550 --> 00:38:14,880
for instance predicting an earthquake in

907
00:38:19,670 --> 00:38:16,560
an earthquake region that has

908
00:38:21,910 --> 00:38:19,680
earthquakes every year is expected

909
00:38:24,069 --> 00:38:21,920
while they do come true such results

910
00:38:25,990 --> 00:38:24,079
diminish the claim of special or psychic

911
00:38:27,990 --> 00:38:26,000
abilities and are certainly no

912
00:38:30,150 --> 00:38:28,000
indication that such abilities are

913
00:38:33,349 --> 00:38:30,160
present

914
00:38:35,349 --> 00:38:33,359
for entertainment only

915
00:38:37,510 --> 00:38:35,359
australian skeptics may well be

916
00:38:40,069 --> 00:38:37,520
criticized for attacking what is after

917
00:38:42,870 --> 00:38:40,079
all only done for entertainment what

918
00:38:44,470 --> 00:38:42,880
some have called quote low hanging fruit

919
00:38:46,230 --> 00:38:44,480
end quote

920
00:38:48,710 --> 00:38:46,240
while this may be the attitude of

921
00:38:50,390 --> 00:38:48,720
magazine editors looking to fill pages

922
00:38:52,870 --> 00:38:50,400
with content that appeals to their

923
00:38:54,950 --> 00:38:52,880
readership the psychic industry by and

924
00:38:56,950 --> 00:38:54,960
large regards predictions as being a

925
00:38:59,430 --> 00:38:56,960
genuine phenomenon and those claiming

926
00:39:01,030 --> 00:38:59,440
the ability can make a living from it by

927
00:39:03,589 --> 00:39:01,040
not only getting paid by various

928
00:39:05,829 --> 00:39:03,599
publications but also by fortune telling

929
00:39:07,109 --> 00:39:05,839
the future for personal clients and

930
00:39:09,589 --> 00:39:07,119
businesses

931
00:39:11,990 --> 00:39:09,599
also if the results of this project did

932
00:39:14,630 --> 00:39:12,000
show evidence of psychic powers it could

933
00:39:16,710 --> 00:39:14,640
lead to a revolution in science and how

934
00:39:20,950 --> 00:39:16,720
we view nature

935
00:39:23,190 --> 00:39:20,960
science cannot test the spiritual world

936
00:39:24,950 --> 00:39:23,200
while those claiming psychic powers are

937
00:39:27,349 --> 00:39:24,960
keen to point out any research that

938
00:39:29,589 --> 00:39:27,359
appears to validate their worldview they

939
00:39:31,190 --> 00:39:29,599
are equally quick to dismiss research

940
00:39:33,190 --> 00:39:31,200
that does not

941
00:39:35,270 --> 00:39:33,200
this has been documented many times by

942
00:39:37,829 --> 00:39:35,280
skeptical groups when various psychics

943
00:39:40,550 --> 00:39:37,839
fail to pass mutually agreed tests of

944
00:39:43,190 --> 00:39:40,560
their paranormal claims

945
00:39:45,270 --> 00:39:43,200
a typical line of reasoning goes quote

946
00:39:47,829 --> 00:39:45,280
love exists but you cannot measure love

947
00:39:49,829 --> 00:39:47,839
using science since you cannot measure

948
00:39:51,589 --> 00:39:49,839
my claim using science my claim

949
00:39:52,950 --> 00:39:51,599
therefore exists

950
00:39:54,870 --> 00:39:52,960
end quote

951
00:39:57,430 --> 00:39:54,880
another line of reasoning observed is

952
00:39:59,589 --> 00:39:57,440
that the universe or the spirits

953
00:40:02,710 --> 00:39:59,599
directly intervene and interfere with

954
00:40:05,349 --> 00:40:02,720
investigations into the paranormal

955
00:40:07,510 --> 00:40:05,359
in our opinion science can and does draw

956
00:40:10,150 --> 00:40:07,520
valid conclusions from the examination

957
00:40:11,750 --> 00:40:10,160
and testing of paranormal claims such as

958
00:40:13,910 --> 00:40:11,760
divination

959
00:40:16,470 --> 00:40:13,920
there is no evidence of interference

960
00:40:20,309 --> 00:40:16,480
from disembodied spirits gods a

961
00:40:23,109 --> 00:40:20,319
conscious universe or karma

962
00:40:25,270 --> 00:40:23,119
cherry picking by skeptics

963
00:40:27,109 --> 00:40:25,280
just as it is noted that psychics will

964
00:40:29,670 --> 00:40:27,119
sometimes cherry-pick their predictions

965
00:40:31,750 --> 00:40:29,680
to only highlight their successes it is

966
00:40:33,750 --> 00:40:31,760
expected that this project will be

967
00:40:35,990 --> 00:40:33,760
criticized for a bias on the part of the

968
00:40:39,109 --> 00:40:36,000
researchers to select or favor

969
00:40:41,430 --> 00:40:39,119
predictions that were not successful

970
00:40:43,270 --> 00:40:41,440
however the researchers took pains to

971
00:40:45,990 --> 00:40:43,280
simply include any and all predictions

972
00:40:47,750 --> 00:40:46,000
that could be found via whatever means

973
00:40:49,670 --> 00:40:47,760
none were rejected beforehand on the

974
00:40:50,470 --> 00:40:49,680
basis of whether they were correct or

975
00:40:52,790 --> 00:40:50,480
wrong

976
00:40:53,990 --> 00:40:52,800
or were suspected of being correct or

977
00:40:55,990 --> 00:40:54,000
wrong

978
00:40:58,230 --> 00:40:56,000
it is acknowledged that there are likely

979
00:41:02,150 --> 00:40:58,240
to be published predictions yet to be

980
00:41:03,750 --> 00:41:02,160
found from the years 2000 to 2020 and

981
00:41:06,230 --> 00:41:03,760
while they would no doubt be a mixture

982
00:41:07,990 --> 00:41:06,240
of results it is not expected that their

983
00:41:11,910 --> 00:41:08,000
possible future inclusion would

984
00:41:14,390 --> 00:41:11,920
significantly alter the overall findings

985
00:41:16,150 --> 00:41:14,400
a notable exception are the stock market

986
00:41:18,309 --> 00:41:16,160
and other world predictions of milton

987
00:41:20,550 --> 00:41:18,319
black based upon astrology or has

988
00:41:22,470 --> 00:41:20,560
claimed psychic abilities

989
00:41:24,790 --> 00:41:22,480
these predictions numbering in the

990
00:41:27,270 --> 00:41:24,800
thousands and published on his website

991
00:41:29,430 --> 00:41:27,280
are somewhat lengthy convoluted vague

992
00:41:31,990 --> 00:41:29,440
and rambling mixed with opinion and

993
00:41:34,630 --> 00:41:32,000
advice and require a huge amount of time

994
00:41:36,470 --> 00:41:34,640
to analyze when and if that is even a

995
00:41:39,430 --> 00:41:36,480
possibility

996
00:41:41,030 --> 00:41:39,440
nevertheless a sample of over 150 of

997
00:41:43,349 --> 00:41:41,040
black's predictions that could be

998
00:41:46,069 --> 00:41:43,359
analyzed is included in the project

999
00:41:47,829 --> 00:41:46,079
mainly dealing with politics if another

1000
00:41:49,670 --> 00:41:47,839
party is willing to attempt to thorough

1001
00:41:52,950 --> 00:41:49,680
analysis of all of milton black's

1002
00:41:55,829 --> 00:41:52,960
predictions they are welcome to do so

1003
00:41:58,150 --> 00:41:55,839
waste of time

1004
00:42:00,390 --> 00:41:58,160
it might be claimed that tv shows

1005
00:42:02,309 --> 00:42:00,400
magazines and the general public will

1006
00:42:04,790 --> 00:42:02,319
continue to use psychics so an

1007
00:42:05,990 --> 00:42:04,800
investigation such as this is a waste of

1008
00:42:08,230 --> 00:42:06,000
time

1009
00:42:10,230 --> 00:42:08,240
but the aim of this project was never to

1010
00:42:12,870 --> 00:42:10,240
end or limit the exposure of those who

1011
00:42:14,390 --> 00:42:12,880
claim to be able to predict the future

1012
00:42:16,630 --> 00:42:14,400
the aim was to gain a better

1013
00:42:18,630 --> 00:42:16,640
understanding of the phenomenon

1014
00:42:20,790 --> 00:42:18,640
skeptical groups have noted from long

1015
00:42:22,550 --> 00:42:20,800
experience that the consistent failure

1016
00:42:24,870 --> 00:42:22,560
of psychics when their claims are

1017
00:42:27,349 --> 00:42:24,880
examined has not resulted in their being

1018
00:42:29,430 --> 00:42:27,359
abandoned by the media or the public in

1019
00:42:31,589 --> 00:42:29,440
general

1020
00:42:33,589 --> 00:42:31,599
this does not prove that every correct

1021
00:42:36,790 --> 00:42:33,599
prediction listed in the database was

1022
00:42:38,390 --> 00:42:36,800
not achieved via paranormal means

1023
00:42:40,230 --> 00:42:38,400
we cannot prove that each and every

1024
00:42:42,710 --> 00:42:40,240
correct prediction was not achieved by

1025
00:42:45,030 --> 00:42:42,720
paranormal means but that was never the

1026
00:42:46,309 --> 00:42:45,040
purpose of the project

1027
00:42:48,390 --> 00:42:46,319
since the percentage of correct

1028
00:42:50,470 --> 00:42:48,400
predictions is low and in line with what

1029
00:42:52,790 --> 00:42:50,480
we might reasonably suspect by chance

1030
00:42:56,950 --> 00:42:52,800
alone there is not enough evidence to

1031
00:42:59,190 --> 00:42:56,960
suspect a paranormal possibility

1032
00:43:01,670 --> 00:42:59,200
ultimately it is not up to skeptical

1033
00:43:03,750 --> 00:43:01,680
groups to disprove any particular claim

1034
00:43:04,790 --> 00:43:03,760
it is up to those making the claim to

1035
00:43:06,870 --> 00:43:04,800
prove it

1036
00:43:10,829 --> 00:43:06,880
given the results of this project they

1037
00:43:17,220 --> 00:43:15,190
so self-assessment cherry picking and

1038
00:43:19,910 --> 00:43:17,230
shoe horning

1039
00:43:21,670 --> 00:43:19,920
[Music]

1040
00:43:23,990 --> 00:43:21,680
it is not uncommon for those making

1041
00:43:26,150 --> 00:43:24,000
predictions to pour over their work and

1042
00:43:27,670 --> 00:43:26,160
highlight successes either real or

1043
00:43:29,910 --> 00:43:27,680
perceived

1044
00:43:32,309 --> 00:43:29,920
an example of psychics assessing their

1045
00:43:35,430 --> 00:43:32,319
own predictions can be found in an

1046
00:43:38,790 --> 00:43:35,440
archived web page from sarah culkins and

1047
00:43:41,990 --> 00:43:38,800
her mother kerry colkins dated from 2006

1048
00:43:44,309 --> 00:43:42,000
where 176 predictions were listed going

1049
00:43:46,630 --> 00:43:44,319
back to 2001.

1050
00:43:49,270 --> 00:43:46,640
the predictions they considered to have

1051
00:43:51,790 --> 00:43:49,280
come true are marked with a tick

1052
00:43:54,390 --> 00:43:51,800
and those equate to about

1053
00:43:56,390 --> 00:43:54,400
75 percent

1054
00:43:59,349 --> 00:43:56,400
these include

1055
00:44:01,750 --> 00:43:59,359
the start of major earth changes

1056
00:44:03,829 --> 00:44:01,760
strange storms and torrential rains

1057
00:44:07,190 --> 00:44:03,839
very severe weather patterns indicated

1058
00:44:10,069 --> 00:44:07,200
we may have to learn to live with

1059
00:44:12,630 --> 00:44:10,079
wild storms and bushfire danger

1060
00:44:15,829 --> 00:44:12,640
using antigravity to lift heavy objects

1061
00:44:17,990 --> 00:44:15,839
will become a reality instead of a dream

1062
00:44:21,109 --> 00:44:18,000
the same predictions are marked as too

1063
00:44:22,630 --> 00:44:21,119
vague expected expected and wrong

1064
00:44:24,870 --> 00:44:22,640
in the database

1065
00:44:27,990 --> 00:44:24,880
there is also a tendency of psychics and

1066
00:44:30,309 --> 00:44:28,000
or their followers to shoehorn

1067
00:44:32,550 --> 00:44:30,319
vague expected or even incorrect

1068
00:44:33,990 --> 00:44:32,560
predictions to make them fit events as

1069
00:44:36,870 --> 00:44:34,000
they play out

1070
00:44:39,829 --> 00:44:36,880
an example of a prediction that could be

1071
00:44:42,309 --> 00:44:39,839
shoehorned comes from the 19th of

1072
00:44:45,109 --> 00:44:42,319
october 2019

1073
00:44:46,230 --> 00:44:45,119
where rose smith is quoted on the

1074
00:44:49,270 --> 00:44:46,240
website

1075
00:44:50,630 --> 00:44:49,280
starts at 60 dot news where it says in

1076
00:44:52,630 --> 00:44:50,640
part

1077
00:44:54,710 --> 00:44:52,640
all of a sudden i could see the statue

1078
00:44:56,550 --> 00:44:54,720
of liberty with all those blue stars

1079
00:44:59,349 --> 00:44:56,560
rotating above the head

1080
00:45:01,910 --> 00:44:59,359
here i was trying to do a horoscope

1081
00:45:03,430 --> 00:45:01,920
nothing to do with it and i thought this

1082
00:45:05,270 --> 00:45:03,440
is for america

1083
00:45:07,270 --> 00:45:05,280
it seemed to involve all the states

1084
00:45:10,870 --> 00:45:07,280
because it reminded me of each state it

1085
00:45:13,109 --> 00:45:10,880
was like 10 12 or 15 involved next

1086
00:45:14,069 --> 00:45:13,119
minute jesus was right in my face and a

1087
00:45:16,150 --> 00:45:14,079
cross

1088
00:45:17,990 --> 00:45:16,160
that usually means sacrifice so there

1089
00:45:20,470 --> 00:45:18,000
may be a big sacrifice coming up in

1090
00:45:22,870 --> 00:45:20,480
america probably around october because

1091
00:45:23,670 --> 00:45:22,880
i was doing october horoscopes at the

1092
00:45:25,349 --> 00:45:23,680
time

1093
00:45:27,510 --> 00:45:25,359
there's going to be something really bad

1094
00:45:29,750 --> 00:45:27,520
happen but i don't know what it was

1095
00:45:32,150 --> 00:45:29,760
because i couldn't focus on it as i was

1096
00:45:33,990 --> 00:45:32,160
doing something different i could tell

1097
00:45:37,430 --> 00:45:34,000
it's bad it's going to hurt a lot of

1098
00:45:39,670 --> 00:45:37,440
people it might be and i'm guessing here

1099
00:45:41,589 --> 00:45:39,680
something like new legislation that puts

1100
00:45:43,750 --> 00:45:41,599
large numbers of people out of work or

1101
00:45:46,630 --> 00:45:43,760
it might be health care legislation

1102
00:45:47,990 --> 00:45:46,640
all i know is millions of people will be

1103
00:45:50,309 --> 00:45:48,000
affected

1104
00:45:53,430 --> 00:45:50,319
in hindsight it would be tempting to

1105
00:45:56,150 --> 00:45:53,440
view this as a forewarning of covert 19

1106
00:45:57,910 --> 00:45:56,160
but to do that would be to cherry-pick

1107
00:46:00,309 --> 00:45:57,920
the parts of the overall prediction that

1108
00:46:02,870 --> 00:46:00,319
fit and ignore the rest especially the

1109
00:46:05,270 --> 00:46:02,880
reference to october 2019

1110
00:46:07,910 --> 00:46:05,280
the last line dealing with health care

1111
00:46:09,430 --> 00:46:07,920
legislation could be seen as the

1112
00:46:12,870 --> 00:46:09,440
continuing efforts of the trump

1113
00:46:16,630 --> 00:46:12,880
administration to dismantle obamacare

1114
00:46:18,309 --> 00:46:16,640
but this was hardly an unknown situation

1115
00:46:20,630 --> 00:46:18,319
as it stands this prediction is

1116
00:46:23,109 --> 00:46:20,640
catalogued under the too vague column in

1117
00:46:25,430 --> 00:46:23,119
the database as there are just too many

1118
00:46:28,230 --> 00:46:25,440
possible interpretations it is

1119
00:46:31,510 --> 00:46:28,240
conceivable that this conclusion would

1120
00:46:34,630 --> 00:46:31,520
be open to criticism by rose smith or

1121
00:46:36,950 --> 00:46:34,640
her supporters who may well view this

1122
00:46:39,190 --> 00:46:36,960
prediction in a somewhat more

1123
00:46:41,109 --> 00:46:39,200
forgiving light

1124
00:46:43,910 --> 00:46:41,119
another notable example comes from april

1125
00:46:46,630 --> 00:46:43,920
2020 when the australian media

1126
00:46:49,030 --> 00:46:46,640
especially the nine tv network were

1127
00:46:51,030 --> 00:46:49,040
reporting that harry t

1128
00:46:53,829 --> 00:46:51,040
a regular tv psychic had predicted

1129
00:46:56,910 --> 00:46:53,839
covert 19 years in advance

1130
00:47:00,710 --> 00:46:56,920
harry t relied on an email he sent in

1131
00:47:03,510 --> 00:47:00,720
2016 to the producers of the today show

1132
00:47:07,030 --> 00:47:03,520
channel 9 tv however when he appeared on

1133
00:47:09,270 --> 00:47:07,040
tv in 2020 to trumpet his success we

1134
00:47:11,030 --> 00:47:09,280
were not shown the original email only

1135
00:47:12,069 --> 00:47:11,040
the following points

1136
00:47:14,870 --> 00:47:12,079
point

1137
00:47:15,750 --> 00:47:14,880
saw china taking over america

1138
00:47:17,910 --> 00:47:15,760
point

1139
00:47:21,990 --> 00:47:17,920
saw more people getting sick

1140
00:47:24,630 --> 00:47:22,000
almost like the flu and other diseases

1141
00:47:27,270 --> 00:47:24,640
point europe not the greatest feeling

1142
00:47:28,950 --> 00:47:27,280
stuff happening reorganized europe will

1143
00:47:31,270 --> 00:47:28,960
change as we know it

1144
00:47:32,309 --> 00:47:31,280
point australia is the safest place to

1145
00:47:35,030 --> 00:47:32,319
be

1146
00:47:38,069 --> 00:47:35,040
from those points he was able at least

1147
00:47:41,270 --> 00:47:38,079
to the satisfaction of morning tv to

1148
00:47:43,829 --> 00:47:41,280
make them fit the covert 19 pandemic of

1149
00:47:45,510 --> 00:47:43,839
2020 and link what might be otherwise

1150
00:47:48,470 --> 00:47:45,520
unconnected predictions

1151
00:47:50,870 --> 00:47:48,480
it is not known what if any other points

1152
00:47:53,510 --> 00:47:50,880
were made in the email at the time and

1153
00:47:55,829 --> 00:47:53,520
one could speculate any other points

1154
00:47:58,069 --> 00:47:55,839
that did not seem to fit being left out

1155
00:47:59,829 --> 00:47:58,079
in other words cherry picking

1156
00:48:01,670 --> 00:47:59,839
the above predictions are not included

1157
00:48:04,630 --> 00:48:01,680
in the database as they were not

1158
00:48:07,270 --> 00:48:04,640
published at the time in 2016. if they

1159
00:48:09,589 --> 00:48:07,280
were included they would be categorized

1160
00:48:13,109 --> 00:48:09,599
individually as being wrong

1161
00:48:15,670 --> 00:48:13,119
expected too vague and expected

1162
00:48:20,230 --> 00:48:15,680
for more on this see the report in the

1163
00:48:22,230 --> 00:48:20,240
skeptic the volume 40 number 2 page ten

1164
00:48:25,270 --> 00:48:22,240
vague predictions are always open to

1165
00:48:27,990 --> 00:48:25,280
interpretation as events unfold

1166
00:48:30,790 --> 00:48:28,000
the media in april and may of 2020

1167
00:48:33,670 --> 00:48:30,800
especially tv were happy to run with the

1168
00:48:35,190 --> 00:48:33,680
story as if harry t really did predict

1169
00:48:37,670 --> 00:48:35,200
covert 19.

1170
00:48:40,150 --> 00:48:37,680
astrologer milton black states the

1171
00:48:42,710 --> 00:48:40,160
following on his website

1172
00:48:45,430 --> 00:48:42,720
milton is renowned for his uncanny and

1173
00:48:46,870 --> 00:48:45,440
accurate forecasts on world politics and

1174
00:48:49,030 --> 00:48:46,880
economics

1175
00:48:50,230 --> 00:48:49,040
his predictions are astoundingly

1176
00:48:52,069 --> 00:48:50,240
accurate

1177
00:48:54,069 --> 00:48:52,079
nevertheless an analysis of his

1178
00:48:56,790 --> 00:48:54,079
predictions in the database shows a

1179
00:48:59,190 --> 00:48:56,800
success rate of about 20 percent

1180
00:49:00,950 --> 00:48:59,200
which is not far above the expected

1181
00:49:03,510 --> 00:49:00,960
range of what could be considered

1182
00:49:05,910 --> 00:49:03,520
educated guessing the problems

1183
00:49:09,430 --> 00:49:05,920
encountered with black's predictions are

1184
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:09,440
discussed in the predictable complaints

1185
00:49:13,270 --> 00:49:10,330
sidebar

1186
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:13,280
[Music]

1187
00:49:18,630 --> 00:49:16,490
they did not see that coming

1188
00:49:21,349 --> 00:49:18,640
[Music]

1189
00:49:23,589 --> 00:49:21,359
another aspect considered were major

1190
00:49:26,950 --> 00:49:23,599
events in australia and from around the

1191
00:49:29,109 --> 00:49:26,960
world that if people could truly glimpse

1192
00:49:31,670 --> 00:49:29,119
the future should have been predicted

1193
00:49:35,349 --> 00:49:31,680
and published in the media to that end a

1194
00:49:38,390 --> 00:49:35,359
list of 210 events 10 from each year of

1195
00:49:40,630 --> 00:49:38,400
the project were compiled and compared

1196
00:49:44,630 --> 00:49:40,640
with the overall database

1197
00:49:46,230 --> 00:49:44,640
these events range from the 911 attacks

1198
00:49:48,390 --> 00:49:46,240
although it is noted that various people

1199
00:49:50,470 --> 00:49:48,400
claim to have predicted this to the rise

1200
00:49:52,950 --> 00:49:50,480
of donald trump and the outbreak of

1201
00:49:54,630 --> 00:49:52,960
curve at 19. again we have claims of

1202
00:49:56,870 --> 00:49:54,640
that being predicted

1203
00:49:58,790 --> 00:49:56,880
although we do find many examples of

1204
00:50:01,030 --> 00:49:58,800
earthquakes and other natural disasters

1205
00:50:03,670 --> 00:50:01,040
being foretold most of these are of a

1206
00:50:05,349 --> 00:50:03,680
vague or expected nature most years

1207
00:50:07,430 --> 00:50:05,359
australia will have major flooding and

1208
00:50:10,470 --> 00:50:07,440
or bushfires for example

1209
00:50:12,549 --> 00:50:10,480
what was clear after this exercise and

1210
00:50:13,430 --> 00:50:12,559
looking at the data in the project as a

1211
00:50:16,390 --> 00:50:13,440
whole

1212
00:50:19,750 --> 00:50:16,400
is that most of what is predicted does

1213
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:19,760
not occur and most of what occurs

1214
00:50:23,670 --> 00:50:20,650
is not predicted

1215
00:50:26,680 --> 00:50:23,680
[Music]

1216
00:50:29,030 --> 00:50:26,690
control group

1217
00:50:30,390 --> 00:50:29,040
[Music]

1218
00:50:31,990 --> 00:50:30,400
this project

1219
00:50:34,390 --> 00:50:32,000
also tried to have some sort of

1220
00:50:37,750 --> 00:50:34,400
understanding as to a benchmark or guide

1221
00:50:40,150 --> 00:50:37,760
for what success rate a psychic would

1222
00:50:42,069 --> 00:50:40,160
need to achieve before we might consider

1223
00:50:43,910 --> 00:50:42,079
the real possibility of their having

1224
00:50:45,990 --> 00:50:43,920
paranormal powers

1225
00:50:47,829 --> 00:50:46,000
the flip side of this question is what

1226
00:50:50,549 --> 00:50:47,839
success rate would the average person in

1227
00:50:53,030 --> 00:50:50,559
the street with no claimed paranormal

1228
00:50:56,549 --> 00:50:53,040
powers have been predicting the coming

1229
00:50:59,190 --> 00:50:56,559
year's events by just guessing

1230
00:51:01,349 --> 00:50:59,200
to that end in late 2016 a group of

1231
00:51:03,470 --> 00:51:01,359
seven volunteers together with the

1232
00:51:06,630 --> 00:51:03,480
author made a list of

1233
00:51:08,870 --> 00:51:06,640
162 predictions for the year 2017 that

1234
00:51:10,430 --> 00:51:08,880
was published online with a timestamp

1235
00:51:12,150 --> 00:51:10,440
the results

1236
00:51:14,549 --> 00:51:12,160
27.2

1237
00:51:17,630 --> 00:51:14,559
correct more than two and a half times

1238
00:51:19,910 --> 00:51:17,640
the average of professional psychics

1239
00:51:23,829 --> 00:51:19,920
61.1 percent wrong

1240
00:51:25,109 --> 00:51:23,839
1.2 percent vague and 10.5 percent

1241
00:51:27,430 --> 00:51:25,119
expected

1242
00:51:29,430 --> 00:51:27,440
while these are relatively impressive it

1243
00:51:31,510 --> 00:51:29,440
has to be noted that skeptics probably

1244
00:51:33,430 --> 00:51:31,520
avoided having too many vague style

1245
00:51:36,230 --> 00:51:33,440
predictions which are common among

1246
00:51:38,950 --> 00:51:36,240
professionals and given the relatively

1247
00:51:41,589 --> 00:51:38,960
small number of data points it should be

1248
00:51:43,510 --> 00:51:41,599
viewed as a more of a talking point

1249
00:51:45,829 --> 00:51:43,520
nevertheless the success rate for the

1250
00:51:49,030 --> 00:51:45,839
control was higher than the success rate

1251
00:51:51,910 --> 00:51:49,040
for those claiming paranormal abilities

1252
00:51:53,370 --> 00:51:51,920
this may be a result of more educated

1253
00:51:56,549 --> 00:51:53,380
guesswork

1254
00:51:57,349 --> 00:51:56,559
[Music]

1255
00:52:03,470 --> 00:51:57,359
if

1256
00:52:07,430 --> 00:52:04,870
[Music]

1257
00:52:08,630 --> 00:52:07,440
skeptical groups sometimes pose the

1258
00:52:11,829 --> 00:52:08,640
question

1259
00:52:14,069 --> 00:52:11,839
what would the world be like if certain

1260
00:52:16,150 --> 00:52:14,079
paranormal or supernatural claims such

1261
00:52:18,710 --> 00:52:16,160
as prophecy or divination

1262
00:52:20,630 --> 00:52:18,720
were actually true with the melbourne

1263
00:52:23,829 --> 00:52:20,640
cup horse race being the

1264
00:52:25,910 --> 00:52:23,839
subject of 57 predictions it is worth

1265
00:52:28,150 --> 00:52:25,920
considering what it would mean to the

1266
00:52:30,710 --> 00:52:28,160
horse racing industry if people really

1267
00:52:33,829 --> 00:52:30,720
could foretell the results of races at a

1268
00:52:37,030 --> 00:52:33,839
rate above what we would expect from the

1269
00:52:38,309 --> 00:52:37,040
yearly statistics known from decades of

1270
00:52:41,510 --> 00:52:38,319
betting

1271
00:52:43,430 --> 00:52:41,520
like casinos the win loss ratio is a

1272
00:52:45,109 --> 00:52:43,440
known quantity and falls within a bell

1273
00:52:47,430 --> 00:52:45,119
curve of results

1274
00:52:48,549 --> 00:52:47,440
if there is an anomaly in the favor of a

1275
00:52:50,710 --> 00:52:48,559
punter

1276
00:52:52,710 --> 00:52:50,720
this can lead to suspicions of cheating

1277
00:52:55,030 --> 00:52:52,720
by whatever means

1278
00:52:58,230 --> 00:52:55,040
this is especially true with casinos

1279
00:53:00,870 --> 00:52:58,240
where statistics are kept for each table

1280
00:53:03,349 --> 00:53:00,880
the house always knows what to expect

1281
00:53:05,829 --> 00:53:03,359
heavy or consistent betting being placed

1282
00:53:08,309 --> 00:53:05,839
on winners via psychic predictions

1283
00:53:10,150 --> 00:53:08,319
would result in a radical change to the

1284
00:53:12,150 --> 00:53:10,160
operation of horse racing casinos

1285
00:53:13,510 --> 00:53:12,160
lotteries and every other form of

1286
00:53:17,349 --> 00:53:13,520
betting

1287
00:53:19,190 --> 00:53:17,359
this has never been observed and any

1288
00:53:21,349 --> 00:53:19,200
consistent anomalies have been the

1289
00:53:23,109 --> 00:53:21,359
result of more mundane activities

1290
00:53:25,190 --> 00:53:23,119
ranging from cheating or rigging the

1291
00:53:26,309 --> 00:53:25,200
system or technical faults with

1292
00:53:28,950 --> 00:53:26,319
equipment

1293
00:53:31,430 --> 00:53:28,960
if it were the case that psychics could

1294
00:53:34,069 --> 00:53:31,440
correctly predict the outcomes it would

1295
00:53:35,750 --> 00:53:34,079
lead to the collapse of these industries

1296
00:53:37,829 --> 00:53:35,760
it is interesting to note that while

1297
00:53:40,630 --> 00:53:37,839
around 20 of predictions concerning the

1298
00:53:42,630 --> 00:53:40,640
melbourne cup are marked as correct

1299
00:53:44,710 --> 00:53:42,640
most of these are of a general nature

1300
00:53:47,670 --> 00:53:44,720
with only five predictions naming the

1301
00:53:49,750 --> 00:53:47,680
actual winner on a more serious issue

1302
00:53:52,470 --> 00:53:49,760
could a psychic be held legally

1303
00:53:55,349 --> 00:53:52,480
accountable for not passing on warnings

1304
00:53:57,750 --> 00:53:55,359
of future negative events if prophecy or

1305
00:53:59,990 --> 00:53:57,760
divination really did work as claimed

1306
00:54:02,950 --> 00:54:00,000
the entire history of our species would

1307
00:54:05,589 --> 00:54:02,960
be drastically different and we would be

1308
00:54:09,990 --> 00:54:05,599
living in a world unrecognizable to the

1309
00:54:15,990 --> 00:54:12,760
looking into the future

1310
00:54:17,670 --> 00:54:16,000
[Music]

1311
00:54:20,790 --> 00:54:17,680
the great australian psychic prediction

1312
00:54:21,990 --> 00:54:20,800
project like science itself is a work in

1313
00:54:24,150 --> 00:54:22,000
progress

1314
00:54:26,630 --> 00:54:24,160
it is open to the addition of new

1315
00:54:29,270 --> 00:54:26,640
predictions published in australia by

1316
00:54:31,109 --> 00:54:29,280
australian psychics from the time period

1317
00:54:33,750 --> 00:54:31,119
2000 to 2020

1318
00:54:36,630 --> 00:54:33,760
if found and the correction of those

1319
00:54:38,789 --> 00:54:36,640
predictions that are in error

1320
00:54:41,510 --> 00:54:38,799
such as a correct prediction that is

1321
00:54:44,630 --> 00:54:41,520
later found out to be wrong or

1322
00:54:47,349 --> 00:54:44,640
too vague or indeed a wrong or unknown

1323
00:54:48,470 --> 00:54:47,359
prediction that is later found out to be

1324
00:54:51,829 --> 00:54:48,480
correct

1325
00:54:53,349 --> 00:54:51,839
people mentioned in the database are

1326
00:54:55,109 --> 00:54:53,359
misquoted or predictions are

1327
00:54:58,069 --> 00:54:55,119
misattributed

1328
00:55:00,710 --> 00:54:58,079
given the sheer number of catalogued

1329
00:55:03,589 --> 00:55:00,720
predictions it is not expected that any

1330
00:55:06,230 --> 00:55:03,599
future corrections will significantly

1331
00:55:08,150 --> 00:55:06,240
change the conclusions of this report it

1332
00:55:10,309 --> 00:55:08,160
is expected that some

1333
00:55:12,950 --> 00:55:10,319
or many of the people listed in the

1334
00:55:14,789 --> 00:55:12,960
database will come forth with a list of

1335
00:55:15,750 --> 00:55:14,799
other predictions made by them that are

1336
00:55:20,870 --> 00:55:15,760
correct

1337
00:55:22,870 --> 00:55:20,880
prove the conclusion wrong

1338
00:55:25,510 --> 00:55:22,880
at least in their case

1339
00:55:27,510 --> 00:55:25,520
these would be considered for inclusion

1340
00:55:30,630 --> 00:55:27,520
as long as there was proof of the

1341
00:55:32,789 --> 00:55:30,640
original publication date they were not

1342
00:55:34,789 --> 00:55:32,799
altered and were not cherry-picked out

1343
00:55:36,470 --> 00:55:34,799
of a range of predictions that included

1344
00:55:38,309 --> 00:55:36,480
those that failed

1345
00:55:39,750 --> 00:55:38,319
it is not expected that enough of these

1346
00:55:42,069 --> 00:55:39,760
possible corrections would be put

1347
00:55:44,710 --> 00:55:42,079
forward to significantly change the

1348
00:55:46,390 --> 00:55:44,720
conclusions of this project

1349
00:55:48,630 --> 00:55:46,400
australian skeptics welcomes and

1350
00:55:50,870 --> 00:55:48,640
encourages other groups or individuals

1351
00:55:53,670 --> 00:55:50,880
anywhere in the world to repeat or

1352
00:55:55,190 --> 00:55:53,680
create a similar project independently

1353
00:55:55,790 --> 00:55:55,200
and we would be interested in the

1354
00:55:59,190 --> 00:55:55,800
results

1355
00:56:04,950 --> 00:56:01,820
conclusions

1356
00:56:10,549 --> 00:56:08,309
even with taking a margin of error into

1357
00:56:13,190 --> 00:56:10,559
account it is hard to see how the

1358
00:56:16,950 --> 00:56:13,200
results of this project can point to any

1359
00:56:19,750 --> 00:56:16,960
other conclusion that those claiming to

1360
00:56:22,150 --> 00:56:19,760
see into the future simply cannot do so

1361
00:56:24,950 --> 00:56:22,160
with a success rate better than chance

1362
00:56:27,589 --> 00:56:24,960
educated guesswork or luck

1363
00:56:30,789 --> 00:56:27,599
there is no reason to come to the

1364
00:56:33,430 --> 00:56:30,799
conclusion that mystical abilities exist

1365
00:56:34,710 --> 00:56:33,440
and they can be used to see into the

1366
00:56:37,109 --> 00:56:34,720
future

1367
00:56:39,270 --> 00:56:37,119
given the number of predictions

1368
00:56:42,549 --> 00:56:39,280
over 3800

1369
00:56:46,470 --> 00:56:42,559
we expect to find many examples of those

1370
00:56:48,390 --> 00:56:46,480
that come true to one degree or another

1371
00:56:50,390 --> 00:56:48,400
it is also noted that psychics and their

1372
00:56:52,870 --> 00:56:50,400
supporters have at times

1373
00:56:54,950 --> 00:56:52,880
shoehorned predictions to make them fit

1374
00:56:57,589 --> 00:56:54,960
events as they unfold thus giving a

1375
00:57:00,069 --> 00:56:57,599
false impression of success

1376
00:57:02,549 --> 00:57:00,079
small number of correct predictions can

1377
00:57:05,430 --> 00:57:02,559
seem uncanny indeed

1378
00:57:08,870 --> 00:57:05,440
but again this is expected given we have

1379
00:57:11,190 --> 00:57:08,880
over 3 800 predictions to choose from

1380
00:57:14,150 --> 00:57:11,200
even someone with no claimed mystical

1381
00:57:17,270 --> 00:57:14,160
powers can score well as we can see with

1382
00:57:20,069 --> 00:57:17,280
the control group from the year 2017. it

1383
00:57:22,150 --> 00:57:20,079
would also be expected that if the

1384
00:57:25,030 --> 00:57:22,160
people listed in the database could

1385
00:57:27,670 --> 00:57:25,040
indeed use mystical powers to foresee

1386
00:57:29,069 --> 00:57:27,680
events the number of correct predictions

1387
00:57:32,230 --> 00:57:29,079
would be

1388
00:57:34,630 --> 00:57:32,240
significantly higher than what was found

1389
00:57:36,470 --> 00:57:34,640
the author is confident given the fact

1390
00:57:39,109 --> 00:57:36,480
that an 11

1391
00:57:41,109 --> 00:57:39,119
correct rate remained more or less

1392
00:57:42,309 --> 00:57:41,119
consistent during the years of working

1393
00:57:44,789 --> 00:57:42,319
on the project

1394
00:57:47,670 --> 00:57:44,799
that this rate represents the norm for

1395
00:57:49,270 --> 00:57:47,680
those claiming psychic abilities

1396
00:57:51,109 --> 00:57:49,280
while this project remains open to

1397
00:57:52,549 --> 00:57:51,119
correction if errors are discovered it

1398
00:57:54,710 --> 00:57:52,559
is not expected that there would be

1399
00:57:56,549 --> 00:57:54,720
enough of these errors found to cause a

1400
00:57:57,829 --> 00:57:56,559
rethink of the conclusions

1401
00:58:00,390 --> 00:57:57,839
in summary

1402
00:58:01,670 --> 00:58:00,400
what we find is that

1403
00:58:03,910 --> 00:58:01,680
point

1404
00:58:05,589 --> 00:58:03,920
psychics make many predictions the

1405
00:58:06,549 --> 00:58:05,599
scattergun effect

1406
00:58:08,870 --> 00:58:06,559
point

1407
00:58:11,589 --> 00:58:08,880
many of these are vague and amenable to

1408
00:58:13,670 --> 00:58:11,599
reinterpretation as events unfold

1409
00:58:15,430 --> 00:58:13,680
point a few predictions will be more or

1410
00:58:17,510 --> 00:58:15,440
less specific

1411
00:58:18,630 --> 00:58:17,520
point psychics point out the ones that

1412
00:58:20,870 --> 00:58:18,640
come true

1413
00:58:23,829 --> 00:58:20,880
or can be shoe warned and ignore the

1414
00:58:26,390 --> 00:58:23,839
rest point there is no need to worry

1415
00:58:28,470 --> 00:58:26,400
about tv producers or magazine editors

1416
00:58:31,829 --> 00:58:28,480
verifying the predictions

1417
00:58:33,910 --> 00:58:31,839
as they don't care or need to

1418
00:58:35,829 --> 00:58:33,920
point there is no need to worry about

1419
00:58:37,030 --> 00:58:35,839
the viewers or readers verifying your

1420
00:58:38,630 --> 00:58:37,040
predictions

1421
00:58:42,870 --> 00:58:38,640
as they will soon

1422
00:58:47,349 --> 00:58:45,530
some statistics

1423
00:58:49,030 --> 00:58:47,359
[Music]

1424
00:58:52,630 --> 00:58:49,040
the total number of predictions in the

1425
00:58:55,589 --> 00:58:52,640
database is 3811.

1426
00:58:57,510 --> 00:58:55,599
this may well grow as more predictions

1427
00:58:59,270 --> 00:58:57,520
are found

1428
00:59:01,670 --> 00:58:59,280
the final breakdown of verdicts

1429
00:59:04,390 --> 00:59:01,680
percentage-wise is correct

1430
00:59:06,950 --> 00:59:04,400
10.9 expected fourteen point nine

1431
00:59:07,990 --> 00:59:06,960
percent too vague eighteen point seven

1432
00:59:17,349 --> 00:59:08,000
percent

1433
00:59:21,030 --> 00:59:18,730
credits

1434
00:59:22,870 --> 00:59:21,040
[Music]

1435
00:59:25,270 --> 00:59:22,880
the author would like to thank everyone

1436
00:59:26,950 --> 00:59:25,280
who over the last 12 years or so has

1437
00:59:29,750 --> 00:59:26,960
given their time and support to this

1438
00:59:32,870 --> 00:59:29,760
project in no particular order brian

1439
00:59:35,910 --> 00:59:32,880
ecko trish han lara benham and lethia

1440
00:59:38,950 --> 00:59:35,920
dean dr steve roberts tim mendenham

1441
00:59:40,069 --> 00:59:38,960
sierra jones michelle franklin michelle

1442
00:59:41,349 --> 00:59:40,079
bickersma

1443
00:59:43,670 --> 00:59:41,359
leonard trammell

1444
00:59:45,750 --> 00:59:43,680
rob palmer pontes buckman

1445
00:59:47,910 --> 00:59:45,760
paula larabach

1446
00:59:50,870 --> 00:59:47,920
hillman susan gerbic

1447
00:59:54,309 --> 00:59:50,880
adrian hill wendy hughes ben radford

1448
00:59:56,789 --> 00:59:54,319
eric trebant stan west jim newman brian

1449
01:00:00,150 --> 00:59:56,799
hart dr angela matkey

1450
01:00:03,270 --> 01:00:00,160
kelly burke ian bryce percy crisp peter

1451
01:00:04,549 --> 01:00:03,280
beldich rebecca jones tom kelly

1452
01:00:06,309 --> 01:00:04,559
kyle polly

1453
01:00:10,870 --> 01:00:06,319
mikey robbins

1454
01:00:14,470 --> 01:00:12,069
[Music]

1455
01:00:16,549 --> 01:00:14,480
about the author richard saunders is

1456
01:00:19,190 --> 01:00:16,559
chief investigator for australian

1457
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:19,200
skeptics inc and producer and presenter

1458
01:00:26,589 --> 01:00:21,970
of the skeptic zone podcast at

1459
01:00:28,789 --> 01:00:26,599
[Music]

1460
01:00:30,630 --> 01:00:28,799
skepticzone.tv and that was the great

1461
01:00:32,309 --> 01:00:30,640
australian psychic prediction project

1462
01:00:33,990 --> 01:00:32,319
published in the pages of the skeptic

1463
01:00:37,910 --> 01:00:34,000
the journal from australian skeptics

1464
01:00:39,829 --> 01:00:37,920
volume 41 number four from december 2021

1465
01:00:41,270 --> 01:00:39,839
and you can subscribe to the skeptic

1466
01:00:42,710 --> 01:00:41,280
magazine

1467
01:01:05,510 --> 01:00:42,720
at www.skeptics.com

1468
01:01:08,630 --> 01:01:07,030
thank you for listening to the skeptic

1469
01:01:10,950 --> 01:01:08,640
zone and thank you to adrian hill very

1470
01:01:12,549 --> 01:01:10,960
much for helping me read that report

1471
01:01:14,549 --> 01:01:12,559
about the great australian psychic

1472
01:01:16,630 --> 01:01:14,559
prediction project and i think we can

1473
01:01:19,030 --> 01:01:16,640
confidently say now

1474
01:01:21,349 --> 01:01:19,040
that uh well we've always been skeptical

1475
01:01:23,910 --> 01:01:21,359
of paranormal claims of

1476
01:01:25,990 --> 01:01:23,920
people being able to foresee events in

1477
01:01:28,789 --> 01:01:26,000
the future but now we have a good

1478
01:01:31,510 --> 01:01:28,799
basis to say why we're skeptical

1479
01:01:32,950 --> 01:01:31,520
now this being december so no matter

1480
01:01:33,910 --> 01:01:32,960
where you are around the world listening

1481
01:01:36,870 --> 01:01:33,920
to this

1482
01:01:38,870 --> 01:01:36,880
your local media will probably

1483
01:01:41,270 --> 01:01:38,880
have some time in the next couple of

1484
01:01:42,549 --> 01:01:41,280
weeks and into january

1485
01:01:43,510 --> 01:01:42,559
psychics

1486
01:01:45,430 --> 01:01:43,520
come in

1487
01:01:47,510 --> 01:01:45,440
to give their predictions

1488
01:01:49,030 --> 01:01:47,520
keep an eye out for that

1489
01:01:50,309 --> 01:01:49,040
now getting back to this protest

1490
01:01:52,630 --> 01:01:50,319
downtown which you can hear in the

1491
01:01:54,789 --> 01:01:52,640
background there

1492
01:01:57,190 --> 01:01:54,799
it was pretty small really people

1493
01:01:58,789 --> 01:01:57,200
carrying australian flags upside down

1494
01:02:02,870 --> 01:01:58,799
australian flags

1495
01:02:04,870 --> 01:02:02,880
the navy

1496
01:02:07,910 --> 01:02:04,880
i'm just looking at the video i shot now

1497
01:02:11,190 --> 01:02:07,920
hospitals are filled with jab victims it

1498
01:02:16,230 --> 01:02:13,190
and they were at the

1499
01:02:18,150 --> 01:02:16,240
door here of the court buildings is like

1500
01:02:20,630 --> 01:02:18,160
a little entryway

1501
01:02:22,150 --> 01:02:20,640
and on the glass they were posting up

1502
01:02:23,430 --> 01:02:22,160
their

1503
01:02:25,589 --> 01:02:23,440
apparently

1504
01:02:27,910 --> 01:02:25,599
legal signs

1505
01:02:31,109 --> 01:02:27,920
anyway off they marched from around the

1506
01:02:33,990 --> 01:02:31,119
law courts to the parliament building

1507
01:02:35,750 --> 01:02:34,000
and at one stage as i was filming these

1508
01:02:37,349 --> 01:02:35,760
people

1509
01:02:38,789 --> 01:02:37,359
more or less minding my own business i

1510
01:02:39,829 --> 01:02:38,799
didn't say a word i was just very

1511
01:02:43,109 --> 01:02:39,839
discreet

1512
01:02:45,270 --> 01:02:43,119
i walked past some women who started to

1513
01:02:46,789 --> 01:02:45,280
go

1514
01:02:49,589 --> 01:02:46,799
at me

1515
01:02:52,470 --> 01:02:49,599
because i was wearing a mask and as i

1516
01:02:54,950 --> 01:02:52,480
watched this video now none of them

1517
01:02:56,789 --> 01:02:54,960
none of them were wearing masks at all

1518
01:02:59,270 --> 01:02:56,799
and they were all in very close

1519
01:03:01,510 --> 01:02:59,280
proximity to each other

1520
01:03:02,789 --> 01:03:01,520
so there you go i saw a protest for the

1521
01:03:05,109 --> 01:03:02,799
first time

1522
01:03:06,390 --> 01:03:05,119
first hand

1523
01:03:08,230 --> 01:03:06,400
thank you to those listeners and

1524
01:03:10,510 --> 01:03:08,240
supporters who don't go to protests but

1525
01:03:13,349 --> 01:03:10,520
keep supporting the skeptic zone at

1526
01:03:15,510 --> 01:03:13,359
skepticzone.tv via patreon or paypal

1527
01:03:16,789 --> 01:03:15,520
your contribution means you listen to

1528
01:03:18,950 --> 01:03:16,799
the show every week and everybody else

1529
01:03:20,710 --> 01:03:18,960
listens to the show every week so

1530
01:03:22,710 --> 01:03:20,720
everybody who doesn't support the show

1531
01:03:25,109 --> 01:03:22,720
i'm very pleased that you listen to the

1532
01:03:27,670 --> 01:03:25,119
show but maybe you can spare a thought

1533
01:03:29,750 --> 01:03:27,680
of thanks to those people who do

1534
01:03:30,789 --> 01:03:29,760
chip in every week so the show can keep

1535
01:03:32,789 --> 01:03:30,799
going

1536
01:03:34,150 --> 01:03:32,799
thank you people

1537
01:03:36,150 --> 01:03:34,160
but for this week

1538
01:03:41,990 --> 01:03:36,160
this is richard saunders signing off

1539
01:03:45,190 --> 01:03:43,750
you've been listening to the skeptic

1540
01:03:46,630 --> 01:03:45,200
zone podcast

1541
01:03:49,750 --> 01:03:46,640
please visit our website at

1542
01:03:55,430 --> 01:03:52,870
for show notes contacts and to access

1543
01:03:57,589 --> 01:03:55,440
the back catalog of episodes going back

1544
01:03:59,589 --> 01:03:57,599
to 2008.

1545
01:04:02,309 --> 01:03:59,599
you can follow the skeptic zone podcast

1546
01:04:04,470 --> 01:04:02,319
on twitter at skepticzone

1547
01:04:06,710 --> 01:04:04,480
visit our facebook page or leave a

1548
01:04:08,870 --> 01:04:06,720
review on itunes

1549
01:04:12,069 --> 01:04:08,880
you can also support the skeptic zone

1550
01:04:15,190 --> 01:04:12,079
via patreon or paypal the skeptic zone

1551
01:04:17,029 --> 01:04:15,200
podcast is an independent production

1552
01:04:19,349 --> 01:04:17,039
the views and opinions expressed on the

1553
01:04:21,829 --> 01:04:19,359
skeptic zone are not necessarily those

1554
01:04:23,490 --> 01:04:21,839
of australian skeptics or any other